All pictures of any quality whatsoever were taken by Carly Kaiser a resident of Lexington and a graduate of the University of Louisville.
(20) Mr. Z (Malibu Moon - Stormy Bear) - Thanks for playing. I am only putting this picture in so the Military Hawk on-site photographer doesn't get mad at me:
(19) El Kabeir (Scat Daddy - Great Venue) - Just can't see it. His performance in the Wood exposed him. He was beating inferior horses before the Wood Memorial. El Kabeir translates into The Kabeir.
(18) War Story (Northern Afleet - Belle Watling) - About 4 months ago, I was close to playing this horse in the future book. However, he hasn't progressed the way I thought he would back in January. Can't see it based on previous performances and the way he has been working at Churchill.
(17) Ocho-Cubed (Street Sense - Winner) - Unfortunate post position draw for the little guy by Street Sense. I didn't have much hope for him anyway. Nope.
(16) Stanford (Malibu Moon - Rosy Humor) - I prefer Berkeley. Will be a pace factor in the race, but not sure he will be able to get the distance based on his running style. Lost to Materiality by a fair distance before the Louisiana Derby.
(15) Keen Ice (Curlin - Medomak) - I am more partial to Schmidt Ice.
I don't think I will have an issue using this image. I know the owners.
He could be a horse that clunks up for fourth but cannot see him doing much better than that--if that at all.
(14) Itsaknockout (Lemon Drop Kid - Stormy B) If you can forgive the last race, he is somewhat competitive. The problem is forgiving him for that last race is like forgiving your girlfriend for cheating on you with Kim Jong Un. Kind of hard to do.
(13) Far Right (Notional - Zindi) - Horse appears to have a lot of energy at Churchill Downs but I question whether he can make up the lengths on Pharaoh. Can't see him winning at all but possibly see him closing for fifth or sixth.
Post 20 is not a bad thing because he was coming from way out of it anyways. With a smart jockey like Mike Smith you know he will be moved to the rail in the first quarter of a mile to save ground in the first turn. Beginning to consider putting him on the bottom of Superfectas.
(12) Materiality (Afleet Alex - Wildwood Flower) He is undefeated and won the Florida Derby so what is the problem? Well, Pletcher doesn't transfer well from Gulfstream to Churchill. He is 1 for 43 in the Derby or something like that. His pedigree is not an issue, however.
Post position draw was a disaster for him so he got downgraded after post position draw. Will have to send him and I can't see him pulling this off after only 3 lifetime starts.
(11) International Star (Fusaichi Pegasus - Parlez) I seriously question who he has beaten on the road to the Kentucky Derby. He is a fighter and I think that the pace will be in his favor, but I simply don't believe he is good enough to win this and the numbers back that up. Bottom of Superfectas? Possibly, but not a win candidate. By the 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus which is a positive. Can't see it.
(10) Bolo (Temple City - Aspen Mountain) - He will be an outstanding turf horse if he is able to recover from this race in good order. I think he has a chance to be in the Top 5 but it is an outside chance at best. Good looking horse but his Santa Anita Derby was lackluster.
That being said, if you want a horse that has the pedigree to run a mile and a quarter, this is it. Temple City won the 12 Furlong Cougar II Handicap at Del Mar. Aspen Mountain only ran twice, but is from the Seattle Slew line so there is more stamina there.
Quick Washington connection: The first foal out of Aspen Mountain was a Parker's Storm Cat.
(9) Carpe Diem (Giants Causeway - Rebridled Dreams) Latin translation is "Seize the Diem". This is where the blog starts to get a little controversial. Most people would have him in the Top 5. He has done nothing wrong. But when I watch him go, I don't see what I see in the horses in my Top 5. I also wonder how his behavior is going to be on Derby Day with 150,000 drunk Corinthian College graduates. Giant's Causeway is an excellent sire and this horse is very nice but I have to take a stand against a favorite somewhere and here it is (along with Materiality).
(8) Firing Line (Line of David - Sister Girl Blues) - Yes, he won his last race by 14. Yes, he finished a head behind Dortmund. However, I have some serious questions. First, the 6-week layoff. Second, he has already lost to Dortmund twice. Third, is his pedigree. Line of David barely held on at 9 Furlongs in the Arkansas Derby and then ran 18th in the Derby. His dam was not effective at long distances either. I think he will be over bet and I think the last furlong and a half are going to be dicey for him.
(7) Tencendur (Warrior's Reward - Still Secret) - The first of my two longshot picks. I don't think he can win, but I think he can hit the board and help the Trifecta and Superfecta payoff. He is improving at the right time. Moved a little early in the Wood Memorial. Like the progress being made and going to get a decent price.
(6) Frosted (Tapit - Fast Cookie) - Impressive win in the Wood Memorial. Before the Wood, he had some equipment changes and had Llewellyn procedure (named after People's Court reporter Doug Llewellyn) for displacement of the soft palate:
This helped him improve in the Wood Memorial, but I seriously question that field and its' depth.
Pace setup really helps him as I think it will be fast up front and he can sit back and take one run. Likely winner? No, but I can see him hitting the board.
Unbelievable pedigree for the distance on both sides for Frosted.
(5) Danzig Moon (Malibu Moon - Leaveminthedust) My upset at a price horse. This year's Derby is very top heavy and I cannot see any of the longshots being able to not only beat Pharaoh, but then also have to beat Dortmund, Frosted, Mutajiib, Materiality, Carpe Diem. However, if I have to pick a long shot to do some damage it is Danzig Moon. Very good pedigree, was gaining in the Bluegrass, and looks to be a horse that is improving at the right time. He is going in the right direction.
The third horse in this race by the great sire Malibu Moon. Post 5 is ok and he will save ground in the first turn.
(4) Dortmund (Big Brown - Our Josephine) - Big old beast has a tremendous stride. If he can get to the outside and use that stride on the backside he can obviously win this with his talent. But that is hard in a 20 horse field. He can't get squeezed and can't be in tight to obstruct his stride. Beautiful stride and knows where the finish line is. Just too many horses to put him #1, but I have tremendous respect for him. Inbred to Danzig 3 x 3 and I think his pedigree and stride will help going the distance.
Would have liked to see him further outside but the 8 post is ok. Needs to get to the outside on the backstretch and let that stride takeover. A stunning picture by Carly:
(3) Upstart (Flatter - Party Silks) - This was my pick to win the Derby last November. I feel bad for abandoning him as my top pick. I still think he is very capable of winning this race and I will have him on top in all of Pick 4s and Pick 5s. The best part of this Derby is that he actually gets to run in the style that fits him best--coming from farther back. In his last few races in Florida, he's been forced to be closer to the pace in order to keep tabs on horses like Itsaknockout and Materiality. This time he can drop far back and make one run, which is much better for him. When you take a horse out of their style of running, you take away that closing kick. Look for improvement this time.
The issue I have with this horse is pedigree. I am a big fan of Flatter, but he hasn't been know to sire long distance horses and, despite his Belmont win, Touch Gold, Upstart's damsire, has sired mostly short distance winners also. Also, the second dam is by Housebuster who was a sprint champion.
Post 19 is good for the tactics that I am hoping he employs.
(2) Mubtaahij (Dubawi - Pennegale) - By one of the Top Six sires in the world (Galileo, Tapit, Deep Impact, War Front and Dansili are the others in my opinion). He certainly has the pedigree to win this. He is the only horse in the field to win beyond a mile and an eighth and he did it twice. Plus, he has the best trainer in the field in his corner in Mike De Kock. Not a great year for a Dubai horse to try the Kentucky Derby but I like this horse and will keep him this high. His win in the Dubai Derby was impressive.
The 6 Post is fine for this horse. He will able to save ground and has one of the best jockeys in the world on him.
(1) American Pharaoh (Pioneerof the Nile - Littleprincessemma) Will I bet him at the odds? No. But I would be lying if I put another horse as number 1. These rankings are based on who I think is better, rather than ranking on best investment (which are horses like Mubtaahij, Upstart, Danzig Moon)
Yes, his last two races have been against weak competition, but he just toys with them. Not likely going to get in too much trouble because he has the speed to put himself into third or fourth position on the outside and make his move on the far turn.
Also, when Gary Young speaks, I listen. He says this might be the best horse he has ever seen and compares him to Michael Jordon. From what I have seen, I cannot disagree with a lofty assessment like that. Pharaoh is the best horse, but the best horse doesn't always win the Kentucky Derby.
Post 18 is not bad for him. He can look inside for the first quarter of a mile and establish position at the back of the first flight and will probably be only three off the rail going into the first turn.
On top of all that, the workout he had last weekend was simply stunning. Look at this:
Happy Derby week
Always Love Your Animals.
Will
