Preseason 3-year-old Colt Rankings for Emerald Downs Sponsored by Buckley, Washington

Last year, I took some shots at the City of Enumclaw so it is only fair that Buckley gets a good mocking. I have contributed a good deal of money to the economy of Buckley so I earned the right to mock such a Northwest treasure.

Buckley is a town whose claim to fame is being a suburb of Bonney Lake and Wilkeson. A town of such importance, they named it after the Northern Pacific Railway District Superintendent J.M. Buckley. Wow, what an endorsement (clearly, I am not running for mayor (or mare) of Buckley any time soon.)

On the City of Buckley website it states that:  "Our collective diversity allows us to maintain and improve the quality of life that so many individuals come to Buckley to enjoy." Certainly diversity is what I think of when I think about Buckley. 

Every year in late June Buckleyians pretend to be entertained/entertaining by having the Buckley Log Show. Yes, a show about logs. The competitions are Olympicesque including the following:  

• Obstacle Pole Bucking (I finished 3rd in this event last year) 
• Hot Saw Limited 
• Its more famous brother: Hot Saw Unlimited (because why would ever want to limit Hot Saw?)
• The Axe Throw and;
• The Horizontal Block Chop 

As Emerald Downs has mascot Ed the horse, so does the Buckley Log Show: TIMBRR the Clown. You can see pictures of TIMBRR here: http://www.buckleylogshow.com/timbrr_the_clown.  In his defense, TIMBRR is the least frightening clown ever. 

You see, I am frightened of clowns. Really frightened. I was forced to watch the Stephen King Mini-Series It in 1991.  Not a good idea. I didn't sleep for a week thinking about Pennywise and his clown face. A Creative Commons picture: 

Clowns scare me and you can see why. Moving on. 

The three-year-old colt division this year is probably the most competitive division so let's get the hard rankings out of the way now. Horses change so much from two to three that I am sure this list will be completely different by the end of August but I plan on giving it a go:

(1) Prime Engine - (Northern Afleet - Gravy Train's Song). Won his two races at Emerald by a combined 15 and 3/4 lengths. Went to Delta Downs where he was beat by Ocho Ocho Ocho. There is a historical saying that: "Once you go Hollendorfer, you never go back." (It is a saying because I just said it and it's historical because I wrote it a sentence ago.) But maybe not. Obviously, this horse will do one of three things: (1) go down south back to Hollendorfer; (2) stay at Emerald Downs the entire season; or (3) start once or twice at Emerald for a race or two and then go back down south. He is working out at Pegasus, so I expect that the answer is going to be (3), but that is just a guess. I don't know. If he does stay up here we are likely to see this horse in the open Allowance race for 3-year-olds on April 25th, if it fills. His recent works:

Pegasus Thoroughbred Training Center	4/2/2015	All Weather Training	5F	1:01.80	Breezing	1/4
Pegasus Thoroughbred Training Center	3/26/2015	All Weather Training	5F	1:02.00	Breezing	1/2
Pegasus Thoroughbred Training Center	3/18/2015	All Weather Training	4F	49.00	Breezing	1/7
Pegasus Thoroughbred Training Center	3/11/2015	All Weather Training	3F	38.80	Breezing	3/3

Workouts Source for all horses: Equibase 

(2) Trackattacker - (Harbor the Gold - Eclatante)  One of the best Juvenile Sprinters we've seen at Emerald Downs. Question is what to do with the Gottstein? Throw it out? I say you have to give him another chance, especially at sprint distances, and I think that shorter races early on in the season will be his strength. Likely to see this horse in the open Allowance race for three-year-olds on April 25th, if it fills. Works:

Emerald Downs	4/6/2015	Dirt	5F	58.40	Handily	1/21
Emerald Downs	3/29/2015	Dirt	5F	1:01.00	Breezing	10/19
Emerald Downs	3/22/2015	Dirt	4F	49.00	Breezing	7/23
Emerald Downs	3/15/2015	Dirt	4F	51.00	Breezing	6/11
Emerald Downs	3/6/2015	Dirt	3F	40.00	Breezing	26/28
Emerald Downs	2/26/2015	Dirt	3F	38.00	Breezing	5/6

(3) Awesome Indian - (Indian Charlie - Clear in the West). Won his only race last year--a MSW versus a very good O.B. Harbor. Has had a few short works since coming back to Emerald. Talented. It should be noted for fairness purposes that the Blogger owns an interest in this horse.

(4) O B Harbor - (Harbor the Gold - Flying Memo) Owned by Oregon-bred and mom-jeans lover Jody Peetz. Very good looking horse who came back from a 2nd place finish against Awesome Indian to win a MSW race decisively against Legion of Boom. I have a soft spot for this guy. Cool horse.

(5) Daytona Beach - (Harbor the Gold - Hit a Star). I am big fan of Vital Signs Stable and they have both a good three-year-old colt and filly (the filly we will get to later this week). Winner of last year's Cahill Road Stakes and a MSW, he will be a horse to contend with in the sprints early on. Two bullet workouts in a row shows a readiness to win right off the bat. Likely to see this horse in the open Allowance race for three-year-olds on April 25th if it fills.

(6) Private Boss (Private Gold - Irene's Bonus Baby) - Purchased for $2,300 at the WTBOA Sale and has now placed in four stakes races. Ran second in the Gottstein and from a mare that keeps producing good ones. Already has four 5 Furlong workouts.

(7) Legion of Boom (Harbor the Gold - Bahati) - The 2013 WTBOA Sales Topper is in training at Pegasus. Two second place finishes to the aforementioned O.B. Harbor and to Old Fashioned Grit is nothing to be ashamed of. I expect that he will break his maiden early on in the season and climb the ladder. The works:

Pegasus Thoroughbred Training Center	4/1/2015	All Weather Training	5F	1:03.00	Breezing from the gate	1/1
Pegasus Thoroughbred Training Center	3/25/2015	All Weather Training	6F	1:15.00	Breezing	1/2
Pegasus Thoroughbred Training Center	3/18/2015	All Weather Training	5F	1:02.10	Breezing	1/4
Pegasus Thoroughbred Training Center	3/11/2015	All Weather Training	5F	1:02.90	Breezing	2/4
Pegasus Thoroughbred Training Center	3/5/2015	All Weather Training	4F	50.00	Breezing	1/3
Pegasus Thoroughbred Training Center	2/26/2015	All Weather Training	4F	52.00	Breezing	2/4
Pegasus Thoroughbred Training Center	2/19/2015	All Weather Training	4F	51.99	Breezing	2/2
Pegasus Thoroughbred Training Center	2/13/2015	All Weather Training	3F	37.80	Breezing	2/4

(8) Christmas Caballo (Papa Clem - Light of a Star) - He has only finished third in a MSW (against Trackattacker) but I think this horse has tons of talent and I expect him to go places. Closed really nicely against the group he faced in the MSW but Trackattacker was getting away from everyone that day.

(9) Old Fashioned Grit (Old Fashioned - Scootin' Girl) - Beat Legion of Boom in a MSW and then ran fifth in the Gottstein. Personally, I really like this horse and think he will run well going forward.

(10) Moby (Harbor the Gold - Last Thoughts) - Placed in three stakes races last year so you have to like his consistency. Two 5 Furlong works signals he will run early this year.

There are several other horses to look out for this year. Specifically, five three-year-old colts who have yet to start that could make some noise this year: Thetrailerguy, T.K. Knockout, Blame It On Royce, Fooled Again and He's a Charmer. 

The early Maiden Optional Claiming and Allowance races should be extremely competitive. The most interesting division of all this year.

Always Love Your Animals,

Will

Military Hawk Blog - Version 2.0

The blog is back for a second season! Hopefully, the blog sequel is more like Godfather Part II or The Empire Strikes Back rather than Weekend at Bernie's II (probably one of the worst movies I have ever seen. Just to give you a hint of how bad it is here is a partial explanation of the plot (Bernie is the dead guy): "Meanwhile the Cartel Bernie was stealing the money for hires a Voodoo Queen to help them find the money. She tells Henry and Charles to steal Bernie's body and raise it from the dead to lead them to the money. Unfortunately Henry and Charles goofed and Bernie can only move when he hears music." I saw this movie in the theater back when I had bad taste and I will never get that 97 minutes back. Got a 10% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes. I digress). 

The wife is on sabbatical--it is tiring for her to deal with my spousal awesomeness 24/7--so I have a some time to write. Over the next two weeks, I will take a look at each of the 4 divisions and give you my thoughts on the upcoming season. For now, let's catch up on the off-season.

A good deal happened during the off-season. To catch you up: 

(1) I turned 40, which now makes me the same age as Mike Man's Gold. 

(2) I practiced some law, which the dog was thrilled about: 

(3) I accepted a breeder award on behalf of Bar C for Noosito. Pam and Neal were busy at a rave in Hermiston that night so I accepted the award and promptly put it on Ebay. 

(4) I was elected (not Central American 80s-style) President of the WTBOA which was a honor (check back with me in the next few months to see if the word "honor" still fits). Any comments on my blog are my own and don't reflect the views of the WTBOA (even though I am always right). As any President would do, I've already abused my powers by signing the following Executive Orders (yes, Napoleon Complex fits me aptly): 

Executive Order #1: Going forward you are required to refer to me as Your Lordship. You can also use Your Excellency, King Joffrey, or Lord Tyrion. As my vassals, I promise to treat you well if you sign over the deed to your lands to me. 

Executive Order #2: All mom jeans are banned from the backstretch: 

More Executive Orders to come. 

On a serious note: This is a unique time for our industry and I am starting the process of examining every successful racing state to learn what makes their owner and breeder programs excel. I am hoping to find the recipe for success. Although I am aware in general of how most state's programs work, I want to focus on the specific details of each state and see if there is anything we can parrot. We will never have another opportunity like this. We must harness the energy and go forward now. No waiting.

Some of my blog posts going forward will contain more content than comedy but I think we need to seriously work together to ensure we have an industry 30 years from now. Please contact with me any thoughts. 

Always Love Your Animals, 

Will 

Marva Jean (2000 - 2015)

I am extremely sad to report Marva Jean died last Saturday in a paddock accident. She died three weeks before she was due to give birth to a Harbor the Gold. I have spent the last week 80% extremely sad for her and 20% in self-pity for the bottomless bad luck I seem to incur with horses (I admit that the 20% is extremely selfish on my part).

Except for my wife and a close friend, I have been unable to talk about her passing. It is simply too sad for me and I am an extremely private person when it comes to family and matters of the heart. (To my friends who sent texts, I am sorry. Not until this afternoon have I been able to deal with the loss).  Also, I wanted to keep her passing to myself in hopes that the reality I was living wasn't true.

Putting these words on the screen today has been difficult (If anyone out there is thinking to himself or herself “This guy is too emotional about his horses” you can elect to stop reading. I refuse to live in a world where I don’t care about them.). However, I thought I would write something, not for condolences, but it wouldn't be fair if she was just another statistic or something that people glance over. She deserves to be remembered for what she was: a champion. I also was hoping that writing about her would be somewhat therapeutic for me (so far, it is not working). I also don’t want to explain what happened to her over and over again to my thoroughbred industry friends when they read a blip about her death in passing.  I am hoping to get the grief of those conversations out of the way now.  Finally, and most importantly, it is my hope that after reading this people will continue to realize that the lives of these animals are fleeting and that maybe we will all cherish and love our horses more tomorrow than we did today (and maybe some carrots).

I can write the basic stats that everyone writes about horses when they die: Stakes wins, money earned, etc., but she was much more than just a racehorse or a broodmare to me. Simply put, she exemplified what I love about these animals and the athletic feats they perform. She outran her pedigree and showed heart in all of her endeavors. She was an excellent mother and the first broodmare that I owned.

She was also kind. In the last month I was looking for a broodmare in Kentucky and California to complement Marva. Part of the search criteria included looking for a mare who was as kind as Marva so they could live out there retirement years together in a paddock at my future farm. For now, I am suspending that search.

When I started buying horses it was requested that I not become emotionally attached to these animals. For the last five days, they have been correct. Despite the grief, I can’t abide by that request. This industry simply doesn’t mean that much to me if I cannot love these horses. I may grieve numerous times before my days are over but I would rather my animals be loved than for me to get an emotional free pass about their death.  

I take solace in the fact that I was part of the quality of life she received.  Very few horses get that type of treatment.  I thank the Griffin Place family for providing her with a home and care in the last years of her life. They cared and fed her every day. 

Marva, you were a champion and so much more than an agricultural commodity. As much as it hurts, I plan to carry on with your daughter in hopes that there is good news at the end of this shit sandwich. Hopefully, she will be as good of a mom as you. Some sunny day.

With an Extremely Heavy Heart,

Will

Another Useless Hypothetical Eclipse Award Ballot

Since I already broke my New Year's Resolution to "be less awesome", let's do another time-honored tradition of early January: giving out awards for performance. Better yet, let's hypothetically give out these awards under the assumption someone actually cared about my opinion or that I had a ballot.  

However, there are some outrageous votes for these awards so why can't I have my say? Case in point: In 2011 someone voted for Drosselmeyer for Turf Male. He raced on the turf once in 2011, finishing 7th in the Sword Dancer. Another laugher was Court Vision for Horse of the Year. Ok.

Here is a list of who I think should win and who will likely win. 

2yo Filly

Who Will Win: Take Charge Brandi

Who Should Win: Lady Eli

Lady Eli is by far the best and most talented two-year old I saw racing this year. She got a good trip in the Juvenile Fillies Turf but her turn of foot was amazing and she was massively impressive in her wins. However, she will be penalized in voting because: (1) She is a turf horse, (2) Take Charge Brandi is trained by D. Wayne Lukas and (3) Take Charge Brandi won her last three races, all since November 1st, so she is fresh in the voters' minds. There is no question in my mind of who the most talented and best horse two-year-old filly was. I just think most people will see Take Charge Brandi as having a better campaign. Depends on how you look at things. 

Watch and dream: 

Lady Eli is the horse I am most excited to see in 2015. 

2yo Colt 

Who Will Win: American Pharaoh 

Who Should Win: American Pharaoh

Only other possibility is Texas Red but he lost the head-to-head in the Frontrunner. Pharaoh won two Grade Is. Done. 

3yo Filly 

Who Will Win: Untapable

Who Should Win: Untapable

If anybody votes for any other horse in this category they should be stripped of their vote for all eternity. They should be ridiculedand forced to eat at Arby's for the rest of their life. I am sure that Drosselmeyer will receive a vote in this category even though he is a seven-year-old male. 

3yo Colt 

Who Will Win: California Chrome

Who Should Win: Bayern

This is where the chorus of boos will start. Don't care. Unfortunately, California Chrome will win this award and I can't argue with people who will vote for him. However, he is not as good as Bayern or Shared Belief. Bayern won 2 to 1 in head-to-head races. He won he B.C. Classic and had memorable races in the Woody Stephens and Haskell. Don't care what your view of the B.C. Classic and stewards' decision was. Shared Belief is overlooked in this category even though I believe he is the best horse in training. 

Older Female 

Who Will Win: Close Hatches

Who Should Win: Close Hatches

She was less than stellar at the end of the year but there is no other competition and she was very very good during the middle of the year. Deserving winner. 

Older Male 

Who Will Win: Palace Malice

Who Should Win: Palace Malice

Who else would you vote for in this category? He didn't race the last part of the year but won the Met Mile and the New Orleans Handicap. The only other option is Goldencents who ended his career in smashing fashion in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, but he is seen as a Sprinter/Miler rather than the tradition older horse. 

**Note: I didn't include Main Sequence. My thought is that this category should be changed to Older Dirt Male to make voting easier. Main Sequence was clearly the best older horse in the country last year but most people will vote for him in the turf category rather than the older male category. This has caused confusion the last few years as Wise Dan has won this category along with HOY and Turf Male.

Turf Male 

Who Will Win: Main Sequence

Who Should Win: Main Sequence

Slam dunk. Championship 

Turf Female 

Who Will Win: Dayatthespa

Who Should Win: Dayatthespa

She won the B.C. If Stephanie's Kitten would have won the B.C. she would have been the deserving winner.

Male Sprinter 

Who Will Win: Work All Week

Who Should Win: Not Sure

Can you give an Eclipse Award to a horse that lost the Addison Cammack handicap? 

Your other options are Private Zone and Goldencents. Both of who I believe are better horses than Work All Week at 6 to 7 Furlongs. Problem is that Private Zone's big win was the Cigar Mile but that was not a sprint. He won the Grade 1 Vosburgh and then finished 3rd in the B.C. Sprint. Goldencents did not win a G1 under a mile this year (He won the Pat O'Brien, a Grade 2 at 7 Furlongs). I guess you could consider Palace, but he is light on the resume. 

Female Sprinter 

Who Will Win:  Judy The Beauty

Who Should Win: Judy the Beauty 

Slam dunk. 

Owner 

Who Will Win: Ramsey 

Who Should Win: Ramsey

I will not be on the ballot this year even though I have 10% in No Claim Will Do. Despite being overlooked in this category, I would give my vote to Ramsey for winning a massive amount of money at a high level. 

Breeder  

Who Will Win:  Ramsey 

Who Should Win:  Ramsey 

Incredible faith in Kitten's Joy continues to award Ramsey. Faith in a stallion works...sometimes. We don't hear of the non-success stories. 

Trainer 

Who Will Win: Art Sherman

Who Should Win: Chad Brown

Art Sherman, Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert could be the finalists. Sherman may win based on one horse. I really think Chad Brown has been exceptional this year with the campaigns of Lady Eli, Dayatthespa, and Bobby's Kitten -- all won Breeders Cup races. He really should win this. 

Jockey 

Who Will Win: Castellano 

Who Should Win: Castellano

He has been the best jockey for the last two years. 

Horse of the Year 

Who Will Win: California Chrome 

Who Should Win: (1) Main Sequence, (2) Bayern, (3) Shared Belief (4) California Chrome 

I am not going to debate this because there is nothing I can do about California Chrome winning this award. I disagree and I could go into the reasons, but what is the point? I would vote for Main Sequence, but very timidly. He was undefeated winning four Grade 1s and beating horses that placed in the Arc in the Breeders Cup Turf. I am timid because his campaign lasted from July to November, he did not beat the strongest fields in the non-BC races. Bayern had a campaign that lasted from January to November. Problem with Bayern is that he boated pretty badly in the Preakness and the Travers. I would not blame anyone for voting for him. Shared Belief is the overlooked horse. He lost one race in which he had trouble. Other than that he was perfect. The problem is that he raced exclusively against older horses except for the troubled BC Classic race and the Malibu will not be looked at (ridiculous) because it came so late in the year. When all is said and done you can't blame people who just watch the Triple Crown to vote for California Chrome. 

Always Love Your Animals, 

Will 

Field Size and Foal Count in Washington

The Issue of the Declining Foal Crop

The yearly Racetrack Industry Program ("RTIP") Symposium at the University of Arizona is something I always keep a close eye on this time of year because (1) I want to ignore the holidays and (2) a good portion of our industry leaders gather to discuss the pressing topics of the day. This year the main topic of discussion appears to be centering around the declining foal crop, the declining number of horses per race, and declines in handle based because of smaller numbers. As you know from my rantings on this blog, I put a huge emphasis on handle because it is the main economic  barometer of our industry overall. Increase handle leads to an increase in purses, which leads to increase in owners and horses, which leads to an increase in handle, which leads to increase purses ......The CIRCLE OF LIFE! 

Some statistics from the speakers at the symposium that are important for purposes of this discussion: 

*In the last 11 years, handle has dropped by 30 percent

*Over the past 25 years, field size has dropped from 9.0 horses per race to 7.9 horses per race today 

*Field sizes are expected to drop in the next few years because of the foal crop decline from the economic slowdown. 

*Handle could climb as much as 43 percent if we averaged 10 horses per race in the United States. 

*Based on analysis from Woodbine, it is better to add horses to short fields, rather than add horses to already large field (a diminishing returns theory). In other words, from the perspective of handle, it is more valuable to add a horse to a six horse field than a horse to a ten horse field. That is good news for our neck of the woods. 

The first three statistics are nothing new. The last two have been harder to quantify. 

Solutions Proposed 

Because I am not going to be negative without attempting to offer a solution (and I am not being negative, just presenting facts), here were the potential solutions that were proposed during the symposium discussion and proposed by turf writers*:

(1) Cut the number of race days and/or the number of races each day

(2) Changing the distribution of purses to allow some owners to get their money back if their horse runs 6th or worse. In other words, incentivize entries. 

(3) Re-distribution of horses to a variety of different trainers rather than a few. Jim Cassidy stated that 20% of the trainers make 80% of the money. If Todd Pletcher has four allowance-level horses to enter into an allowance race, he will likely enter two and wait on the other two. If those four horses are in the hands of four different trainers, they all get entered. 

(5) Coordinating schedules/conditions with "neighboring" racetracks - Don't have Hastings, Portland and Emerald running at the same time. 

(6) Focusing on the old customer - lowering takeout

(7) Focusing on the new customer - making the game 

(8) Start horses more often - races are getting spaced out more and more.  

(9) Increase the foal count - 

All of these have at least some merit, but they also have drawbacks. 

As a Board member of the WTBOA, I will focus on (9) because every other decision is currently out of my influence/control (See I learned something from all those self-help books: "Control only what is the 3 feet around you." blah.). Recently, I had an email discussion with one of Washington's industry leaders about the current situation and whether there was a way to incentivize the breeders in our state to take the mares that were out of commission because of the Great Recession and/or the current economics of raising a horse in Washington State. This is a question I continue to ponder. Most of the mares that were "taken out of production" during the Great Recession are likely not coming back into the breeding shed. However, the breeders who were taken out of production during the Great Recession may consider breeding one or two horses in the coming years considering the changes in Washington and the change in the overall economy. It is extremely important that we bring them back into the industry.  

Increasing the Foal Count versus The Cost of Raising Horses

Unfortunately, the cost of raising a horse for sale has become prohibitive. Take our WTBOA sale. Some numbers thrown around by the industry's brightest are that it costs $8,000 (plus stud fee) per horse to bring them to the sale.  That is $8,000 for someone who owns their own farm (rough estimate, you may have a different number).  However, it costs individuals like me without a farm me more than that to raise a foal. The biggest factors in this overall cost are (according the Brewer Thoroughbreds Excel Spreadsheets which I never want my financial advisor to see): 

(1) Boarding 

(2) Vet Bills  

(3) Stallion Fees 

There are other costs such as insurance, farrier, transportation, foaling and also nomination fees but those are less significant than the three above. 

So if you pay a $2,000 stud fee you are looking at needing $10,000 to break even assuming you have your own farm. If you don't, you probably need more like $12,000 to break even. The average at the 2014 WTBOA sale was $16,012 (that includes non-Washington-breds). So breeders are making money and should breed more horses right? Well, the $16,000 doesn't take into account the other empty mares at the farm, the foal that came out crooked and sold for $2,000, the foal that had bad x-rays and now is recovering before the horse is put in training by the breeder at $55 a day. Also, I am not including the cost of the MARE in all of this. This is not woe is me, it is just economic fact. I am willing to support this industry even if it impacts me negatively in the short term. 

So you can attack this economic issue in two ways: (a) increase the price you get for foals and (b) lower the costs for production. 

(a) Increase the Price you get for Foals

I have always said that we don't suffer from a lack of horses, we suffer from a lack of owners. If we have the owners, we will breed the horses. The more owners that we get wanting horses, the more the price of those foals increases (supply and demand). In the last year, we have been provided with a "Buy Here, Win Here" Bonus for horses going through our sale and, most importantly, the Emerald Racing Club created hundreds of potential new owners which should have a positive impact on our state for years to come. Every organization needs to sit down and think about how to drive owners to the sport and the breeders need to figure out ways to put foals on the ground. We need to take these new owners and mentor them. Make sure they meet the right people and make sure they get off to a good start in ownership. 

Another way to increase the price for our foals is to make them more appealing to buyers. So an important question that breeders have to ask every year is: What stallion in Washington right now is going to get you, on average, $12,000+ so that breeders are incentivized to add more mares? We had a good sale last year but the average for a Washington-bred yearling sold at auction was below $12,000 up until 2013 (according the 2014 Jockey Club Fact Book). I like some of our Washington stallions but I truly believe it is a priority to get more quality stallions to our state to give breeders a chance to succeed. Having higher quality stallions in Washington also helps lower cost (see below) because transportation expenses to Kentucky and California along with boarding for at least 60 days while your mare is visiting out of state is very costly. Plus, stud fees in Washington typically are less expensive. 

(b) Lower the Costs of Production

So the question is how do we go about reducing the costs of those three items listed above. Boarding and vet bills are hard. The cost of goods is going up so the cost of boarding will continue to go up. I don't see vet bills getting any cheaper (although I wish they would). I lack the economic intelligence to understand ways to decrease the price of goods for people who board horses. I simply need to understand it better. It appears that the only thing I can figure out, for now, is how to get better prices for your foal. 

As industry stakeholders, I would welcome any ideas. Could we have stallion owners incentivize broodmares that are "out of commission." Will breeders pretend their horse is "out of commission" to get incentivized? How do we cut down on vet bills? How do we cut down on boarding costs? How do we get together and bring new stallions to the state? I will put all the legal agreements together to bring a stallion here. I will research the pedigrees. I will recruit mares. I just think we need to work together to get done what we can get done.  

Solutions Proposed Redux 

After that quick detour into bookkeeping hell, let's get back to the issue of handle and solutions (1)-(8) that I discussed above. I lack the power to pass any of those solutions through regulation, track, etc. But I will offer a few thoughts. As a person who studies this industry and the behavior of "investors" for over 25 years, I can tell you I (and others) put an emphasis on the following when determining whether to invest: 

(1) Takeout Rate  

(2) Quality of Races - More consistency, better rides

(3) Quantity of Horses in a Race 

(4) Total Pool for Specific Investment (i.e., Pick 5 total pool) - Liquidity 

If I see a 5 horse field of low-level claiming horses I am going to skip the race and even a sequence (Pick 3,4, and 5) entirely. 2500N3L races simply don't appeal to me as a bettor. Sorry, but true. These horses are wildly inconsistent and not fun to watch. It also doesn't make good economic sense for me to invest in those type of races. We really need to focus not just on the quantity of horses in each race but the quality and the investability, for lack of a better (or bettor) term, of each race. 

*Some articles for your edification: 

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/89129/symposium-customer-has-to-figure-in-equation

http://www.drf.com/news/industry-tries-balance-field-size-and-bottom-line

http://www.drf.com/news/field-size-hot-topic-racing-symposium

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/horse-racings-slow-motion-train-wreck/

Always Love Your Animals, 

Will 

Prime Engine - Delta Downs Jackpot

Prime Engine, the Gottstein winner, races in the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot (G. III) on Saturday. Prime Engine is undefeated from two starts at Emerald Downs.

Past Performances for the Delta Downs Jackpot can be found here:

http://static.boydgaming.net/deltadownsracing/media/downloads/2014-past-performances/race-7.pdf

Prime Engine's race record:

http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=9305640&registry=T

Always Love Your Animals,

Will

Fear and Loathing in Lexington, Kentucky and the La Quinta pool in Ontario, California

Hi, anything happen while I was gone to Kentucky? Any news on the Northwest racing front? Just curious. 

I'm back from my two-week voyage to the Breeders' Cup and the Land of Moonshine and Justified . The last few weeks have been memorable, frustrating, long, a hell of a lot of fun, and very educational. In an industry where you never stop learning (and hence the reason I love it), I learned several things while on my trips which I will gladly share with you: 

(5) Will Brewer is poor, relatively - I'm not complaining. I don't have a bad life or struck with some terrible disease (except Narcissism). In fact, I have a great life. I am extremely good looking, also good looking and am really good looking.  However, I have to admit I was a little frustrated and down at the first-part of the Keeneland November sale. Buying broodmares in my price range for Washington was next to impossible. Out here in Washington, we have a lower yearling average than other parts of the country. So, you can't, from a business perspective, justify spending a significant amount on a broodmare that you are going to have to foal in Washington. As a result, I have a cap on how much I will spend on a broodmare and I, unlike my wife, will not compromise my standards just for the purposes of getting a broodmare (getting married). I didn't compromise, but I paid for it (or actually didn't) by coming home empty handed. 

I have been to several sales back in Kentucky, but this was Keeneland insanity at its finest. I saw many people were overpaying for mares just because they were in foal to a hot sire like Pioneerofthenile or Super Saver. I never care much for who the mare is in foal to. At the end of the day you are buying the mare, not the foal. That foal she is carrying could die, could come out crooked, etc. At the end of the day, you MUST be satisfied with the broodmare you purchased and not who she is in foal to. People were spending $80,000 for a relatively poor mare because they were in foal to a hot sire. If that foal doesn't make it, you have invested a large sum of money for nothing. I can't spend anywhere close to that amount.  Common sense seems to go out the window at those sales. I will only own a handful of horses in my life, I have to get it right...most of the time. So I wait.....

(4) Never name your pony Dick - It leads to terrible dinner jokes. Or just don't go to dinner with people from the "Northwest". And don't bring up Beaver Pelt. Or Horsey. Or Mustangs. Or never-ending Pasta Bowls. Or the 3 year-old stakes races at Emerald last year. You see, you missed a lot by not being at Keeneland. 

(3-Tie) Looks are Deceiving - I can't tell you how many times I looked at broodmares that won over $200,000 only to find horrible crookedness. You wonder how they ran thru all of that. But they did and the examples were numerous all over the Keeneland sales ground. As I learned a long time ago, heart and determination matter so much in this game. I went to several farms while in Kentucky to look at the new stallions that were being offered. I was surprised by some of the stallions I liked. I will recap the stallions I saw, with pictures, in a future blog posting. 

(3-Tie) I am Horrible at Photography - I mean awful. Here is just a sampling from BC and Keeneland: 

Just a bit outside!

Ansel Adams would be proud. 

And now for the Will Brewer Post-Modern collection: 

Because I know your foal will come out of their mom with a blanket on, here is what they will look like if sired by Will Take Charge: 

A great picture if I could put my iPad cover on correctly: 

(2) Always Have a Los Alamitos VIP with You and Always Be Prepared to Survive a Rave- Went with a really fun group of troubled teens to the Breeders' Cup this year. These lovable scamps were a rowdy bunch at times. Lots of stories to tell but none greater than exercise rider Clark "Clint" Jones and his pull at Los Alamitos. You have never experienced the full Clint Jones VIP treatment until you go to Los Al and get into the Vessels Club for no charge (because it's free). Free Past Performances courtesy of taking it off someone else's table (Thanks Ash). Free parking courtesy of it being free. Free entry courtesy of it being free. Dinner cost me like $80 though. Los Al style: 

Um, okay.

Yes, I went from Breeders Cup to Los Alamitos in one day. True fan. 

(This looks like a country band album cover with Chris Stenslie playing the mysterious drummer)

In addition to Los Al, this smaller group (above) had to survive a rave in the Ontario, California La Quinta hotel lobby in order to make it out to Santa Anita to see workouts at 5:30 am. You would think the La Quinta would be empty at 4:45 a.m. However, I walk down stairs to meet everyone and there are seven people on some sort of synthetic drug drinking themselves silly in the lobby of the La Quinta. Repeat, the lobby of the La Quinta at 4:45am. You see, one of the world's biggest raves was being held in Los Angeles (although it seemed like it was being held at the La Quinta Pool) on BC weekend and we bore the brunt of it. There were dudes walking around in just towels at 4:45 a.m. in the lobby of the La Quinta tripping and drinking. Great to wake up to. Regardless, we made it out to see the BC horses gallop around the track. Well worth dealing with the Daft Punk fan club in the lobby. 

(1) There is no such thing as a "Vacation Day" in Horse Racing - The day? Thursday, November 13th. The Event? My final day in Kentucky. The Situation? I was done trying to find a broodmare. No horses on my list. I planned a nice quiet day of looking at stallions and going to visit some retired horses. The Change? And then the news was announced of the sale of Emerald Downs. 

Let me tell you my reaction to this news: Optimism. Next thought: Please, let's open our arms to our new owners. Let's listen to them and assist them in anyway possible. Please, let's allow the new owners of the track some time to figure things out. Let's not make demands. They are taking on a tremendous task of owning a racetrack and trying to make it profitable. It's hard to do. They are smart business people who are successful in the gaming industry. If we help them in anyway we can and they are successful, the (my) dream of having a sustainable thoroughbred industry in Washington for the next several generations will be closer to becoming a reality. This is our chance to make things better. It may be our only chance. Let's listen and open our arms to the new owner. Let's wait 60 to 90 days and see the details of the contract before we start demanding, complaining or spreading rumor. Let's help them in any capacity that we can. Let's use this energy and make this nothing but a positive. 

Always Love Your Animals and Your New Owner of Emerald Downs, 

Will