First off, if you are out at the track on Saturday the second race is a very nice Maiden Special Weight. I am very interested in seeing Herculette run for the first time. Herculette is by Indian Charlie out of the Seattle Slew mare Seattle Shimmer. Herculette was a $230,000 Keeneland January short-yearling purchase.
So now let's begin the countdown of my top 5 picks for the Longacres Mile. Please hold your applause until the very end.
#5) Title Contender (9/2) - This four-year-old Pulpit gelding has a few things going for him. First, he got the #7 post, which I think will benefit his style of sitting right off the pace and making a move around the turn. Second, he is one for one at the distance and has already won at a mile and a sixteenth. Third, Title Contender is in good form as he has not been worse than second in five starts this year. But here is the question: Who has this horse beat this year? He was beaten by Taylor's Deal and Mr. Bowling (at Hastings for that matter). He was able to beat Twistgrips twice but Twistgrips was not able to come close to Stryker Phd or Mr. Bowling in the Budweiser Handicap. Twistgrips is also 20-1 on the morning line. By the way, Twistgrips is trained by John Snow and I find it amazing that his both able to do the Night's Watch and train horses. I would include on the bottom of Trifectas and Superfectas, but 9/2 is a little low for my taste.
#4) Dontmesswithkitten (20-1) - I can hear the cries of "Homer"** everywhere. But first let me say that (1) I did not write the Iliad and the Odyssey, (2) this blog is completely fair and objective, (3) I am never talking to you again if you think I am a homer.
In the last ten years, I have correctly picked three Mile winners (not bad, but not good either), one of which was No Giveaway (the other two were logical favorite-type picks in The Great Face and Wasserman). I liked No Giveaway because if you looked at his form he was an improving horse who seemed to be primed to put in the best run of his life. This is how I feel about Dontmesswithkitten. He is ascending the Beyer Number ladder and is beginning to take to the Emerald Downs surface even though he is by Kitten's Joy out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare. His last run in the Mount Rainier, albeit assisted by a speed bias that day, was impressive as he was pulling away from a good horse in Disruption at the end. Plus, he has the "Sizzla" Rocco Bowen on him and he gets to ride the rail all the way around because Jebrica will drop back at the start. At 20-1, it is worth an include.
His knocks are that he did not run as well in the other two handicaps at Emerald Downs and he suffers from a case of seconditis. Ok, fair enough, but I am putting him in my vertical investments. Go Rocco!
#3) Shooting Jacket (20-1) - Ok, now I am talking crazy right? Want to put me in a straight jacket? Remember my Commanding Curve warning in the Derby? He is hampered by the post position, but he is not going for the lead anyway. All of the speed will get away from him early and I expect he will be no worse than three wide in the first turn (yes, three). Then he, Jebrica and Stryker Phd will hang out and talk about oats and hay for 6 furlongs in the back before getting to work. Everyone talks about how great Stryker Phd closed in the Mt. Rainier on a speed biased day but so did this horse. He passed several horses in the stretch including Jebrica and Mr. Bowling. He is a closer in a race with a decent amount of speed. I like long shots because daddy needs to get paid.
#2) Stryker Phd (5/2) - Now we start tasting the chalk. How can you knock him? He is perfect this year. Larry and Sharon have done a wonderful job with him. He got a great post for his style. The pace looks to favor him. He is just a solid horse and I would like to see the mile won by a local horse, but I have to be objective in my handicapping so I am putting him at #2. Here are some pictures of the Stryker taken by Terra Lee:
And again Stryker C.A.T.
#1) Prohibition (3-1) - This was a real struggle for me not because he is not a local horse (although he actually is now considering he is trained at Pegasus and owned by Dr. Mark) but because it was my least favorite time in American history. How could you live through that? I will take the Great Depression, the Dust Bowl or the Hot Pants Era over Prohibition. I simply think Prohibition is the best horse in the field. First, he has put up high Beyer figures (98s) in two races this year. He also seems to possess the ability to come off the pace. In addition, he has an excellent post position. His one bad race this year came on the turf so you can throw that out.
His last race was the Commentator Handicap at Belmont Park where he finished fourth. He finished fourth to Zivo, Big Business and Weekend Hideaway. Zivo came back from the Commentator to win the Grade 2 Suburban Handicap beating horses such as Moreno, Prayer for Relief, Ever Rider, Romansh, Mylute and Last Gunfighter. Big Business came back to win an Allowance Optional Claimer and has finished second in two stakes at Saratoga. Weekend Hideaway has since won two in a row including an Allowance race and a stakes race at Saratoga.
Two big drawbacks: (1) He has not raced since May and (2) His last three wins were all wire-to-wire victories and I don't think he will get the lead in this race (Scat daddy baby). Plus, his wire-to-wire victories were on the inner dirt surface at Aqueduct which favors closers because of the tighter turns and his other one was at Parx. However, he has come off the pace to win this year.
Let's rock the handle number this weekend. Would love to hear others opinions. Put your comments below.
Should be a fun day and a great race. Good luck everyone and go Northwest!
Always Love Your Animals,
Will
**Definition of homer for you old people out there: Someone who shows blind loyalty to a team or organization, typically ignoring any shortcomings or faults they have.
1 comment:
You should have posted a video of the cat so people could get the full effect of him listening to UB40's Rat in the Kitchen.
Post a Comment