Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Derby Rankings #20 thru #11

Post Positions are drawn and here are my ranking of the Derby contenders from #20 to #11. Tomorrow, I will release #10 thru #1. Please note that this is just a ranking of how good I think these horses are at this time and not what I would “invest” in. For instance, no matter how good he is, I would never invest in California Chrome at 2-1 in a 20-horse field of rowdy three-year olds. If he beats me, fine. I will toast a West Coast victory and be happy for Art Sherman. With the amount of horses in the Derby you have to take your shot at big odds.

There were 5 times I was convinced I knew who the Derby winner was to a certainty: Barbaro, Big Brown, Fusaichi Pegasus, Point Given and Empire Maker. I was wrong on Point Given and Empire Maker, but both proved later on to be superior horses of their generation. Essentially, anything can happen in the derby. 

I have no such conviction this year. His Royal Chromeness may be on a horizontal wager (Pick 4 or Pick 5) of mine, but my goal is to try and beat him no matter how good I think he is.

Besides Point Given and Empire Maker, there were other recent favorites under odds of 3-1 to lose the Derby:

1991: Hansel 2.5 – 1 
1992: Arazi .90 - 1
1994: Holy Bull 2.4 -1
1998: Indian Charlie 2.7 – 1 
2005: Bellamy Road 2.6 – 1

Long term strategy requires that you try to beat the favorite in the derby.

Let’s get this party started:

No. 20: We Miss ArtiePost Position: 7  Odds: 50-1
By Artie Schiller out of Athena’s Gift (Fusaichi Pegasus). Cannot see this horse winning, hitting the board or even being in the top 10. His last race on dirt was in the Fountain of Youth where he lost by 17 lengths. His dirt race prior to that was a 7th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Won the Spiral on a synthetic (non-dirt) surface. Got completely outworked by Intense Holiday on Sunday. If he wins I will jump in the lake in the infield at Emerald Downs. Could get outrun by Art Garfunkel.

No. 19: Harry’s HolidayPost Position: 2   Odds: 50-1
By Harlan’s Holiday out of Daisy Mason (Orientate). Lost the Bluegrass by 28 lengths in his last start. Prior to that he lost to the aforementioned We Miss Artie in the Spiral. Last time he raced on dirt he was 5th in a non-graded stakes race. Best thing I can say about him is that I like his pedigree (I think Orientate mares are underrated). Will be taking a vacation in the last 6 Furlongs of the race.  

No. 18: VinceremosPost Position:  9  Odds: 30-1
By Pioneerof the Nile out of Kettle’s Sister (More Than Ready). Also lost the Bluegrass by 28 lengths finishing 14th. He finished second in the Tampa Bay Derby to Ring Weekend who would have a hard time beating any horse in the top ten. Works lately at Churchill have not been good. In fact, he was outworked by the highly-touted Danza on Sunday. However, I love the pedigree on this horse. Pioneerof the Nile is one of the hotter younger sires in the country and More Than Ready is destined to be a good damsire. Best argument you can make for this horse is that he hated the synthetic surface at Bluegrass and if you throw the last race out his record is decent, but not good enough. Vinceremos is named after a therapeutic riding center so that is pretty cool.   

No. 17: ChituPost Position: 13  Odds: 20-1
By Henny Hughes out of Sea Gift (A.P. Indy). Adds speed to a race that has plenty of it. Got a good post where he can sit and see what all the speed inside of him does. His last race was in March where he beat Midnight Hawk in the Sunland Derby. Midnight Hawk came back in the Illinois Derby and lost to a horse that just broke its maiden. That doesn’t help my faith in Chitu. Henny Hughes as sire doesn’t give me confidence that this horse can get the distance. A.P. Indy as the broodmare sire helps. A.P. Indy won at a mile and a half in the Belmont. Baffert has been having a hard time deciding what to do with this horse, which also doesn’t give me much confidence. Named after a dog:





Or is that a Shih Tzu?

No. 16: General a RodPost Position:  8  Odds: 15-1
By Roman Ruler out of Dynamite Eyes (Dynaformer). This horse is a blue-collar type of horse, but I think he has distance limitations. He lost ground to Wildcat Red and Constitution when he stretched out in the Florida Derby. His works have been less than stellar at Churchill. Will provide speed to a race that has lots of it. The best thing going for him is that his damsire is Dynaformer, which adds a little distance to his pedigree. However, the dam’s only win was at 6.5 Furlongs.

No. 15: Vicar’s in TroublePost Position: 1 Odds: 30-1

By Into Mischief out of Vibrant (Vicar). Post-position draw was devastating. Rosie will have to send, adding more speed to the fire. His Louisiana Derby win was impressive, but he got a clear lead and not much pressure. I simply can’t see him surviving a speed duel with all the other horses above and being around at the end. Even if he takes back, he has tons of horses coming down on him from the outside trapping him. Didn’t like him much anyway but the post makes my opinion even lower. Into Mischief is a revelation as a sire. The dam, Vibrant, was a sprinter. Ramsey’s best chance for a win but that is not saying much. A picture of Into Mischief:




No. 14: Wildcat RedPost Position: 10 Odds: 15-1
By D’Wildcat out of Racene (Miner’s Mark). Another speed horse that will contribute to a likely pace meltdown in the Derby. He is a hard-knocking horse that has some serious guts. I have lots of respect for him but, again, I simply can’t seem him going 10 Furlongs. Plus, there is the long layoff having not raced since March. D’Wildcat's, his sire, best wins were at 6 and 7 Furlongs. A point in his favor is that Miner’s Mark won the Jockey Club Gold Cup at 10 Furlongs. The dam, Racene, was stakes placed at 9 Furlongs, but on the turf. 

No. 13: Uncle SighPost Position: 3 Odds: 30-1

By Indian Charlie out of Cradlesong (Pine Bluff). I’ve been suspect of the New York horses all year. In my opinion, the West Coast, Keeneland, and Fairgrounds horses are the stronger group of horses. This was proven when Wicked Strong shipped from Florida to the run in the Wood Memorial and bested Uncle Sigh and Samraat. The dam Cradlesong was unraced, but her damsire is A.P. Indy (he won at a 12 Furlongs) so that helps with any distance issues. Cradlesong’s sire, Pine Bluff, won the Preakness. Uncle Sigh no doubt had a bad trip in the Wood Memorial, but I don’t see the New York-based horses being able to compete with these. He is adding blinkers for this race which likely means he will be near the front. Another horse with speed to add to the pace scenario. Needs a good gate break out of post position #3.

No. 12: SamraatPost Position: 6 Odds: 15-1

By Noble Causeway out of Little Indian Girl (Indian Charlie). Again, another New York horse who got beat by Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial. This horse has made 6 starts and has won 5 and finished second once. Great record. Just don’t think he is good enough and I am worried about the distance. Another horse with a decent amount of speed (you can see where I am going with this). Little Indian Girl’s only win was in a Maiden Claiming race at 8.5 Furlongs. Noble Causeway finished 14th in the Kentucky Derby.

No. 11: TapiturePost Position: 15 Odds: 15-1


By Tapit out of Free Spin (Olympio).  This is where things start getting tough. Anybody from #11 to #1 can get in the top four positions. If you throw out Tapiture’s last race, you are looking at a serious contender. He was hung out wide in the last race so he had an excuse for his performance. After reviewing the race, I see a horse that did not appreciate the extra distance and I am suspect of the talent level of the horses that were at Oaklawn this season. I fear this horse may have reached his peak. On Derby Day, you’re looking for a horse that is improving at the right time.

Tomorrow is #10 - #1 

Always love your animals

Will 

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Broodmare of the Week - Gana Facil - The Great Unbridled

*Note: There are several imbedded Youtube videos so if you are getting this by email and are not able to see Youtube videos you may want to go directly to militaryhawk.blogspot.com.
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Unlike the 49ers and their fans, I am not much of a crier. However, I will admit to crying three times during law school, none of which were related to Torts or Criminal Procedure:

One time was in April 2003, when I found out that my cat Zipper had cancer and there was nothing we could do to save him. He was the greatest cat of all time. 

Another time was May 7, 2002, the day Seattle Slew died.  

The third time was October 18, 2001, the day the great Unbridled passed away.

Most people reading this post have their fondest memories of horse racing linked to a horse of their own winning a big race or seeing Seattle Slew or Alydar win the Triple Crown on TV. Mary Lou Griffin’s favorite memory is seeing Secretariat win the Belmont. For Claudia Canouse, it was being on-track for the 1920 match race between Man O’ War and Sir Barton. For my friend Jason, it was watching Balto Star finish 14th in the 2001 Kentucky Derby, losing by 32 lengths.

For me, my love for racing on a national scale began on May 5, 1990, when Unbridled won the Kentucky Derby:



Unbridled was trained by Carl Nafzger and owned by the 92-year-old Frances Genter who was unable to see over the crowd to see her horse win the Derby: 



Unbridled was by Fappiano out of Gana Facil (Le Fabuleux). Watching that big horse with a white blaze roll down the stretch was thrilling. He was simply a magnificent looking horse.

No matter what his race record turned out to be, he was always going to be my horse hero and he is still my favorite horse of all time. A picture of his Kentucky Derby win sits in my man cave just above my computer.

It is similar to any kid when they went and saw their first sporting event live: Ken Griffey Jr. at the Kingdome; Gary Payton at Key Arena; Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor and Russell Wilson at Century Link Field; Rick Mirer…. ok, never mind.  They’re your heroes because they came first and you attribute your passion for the game to them. I attribute a great deal of my passion for horse racing to Unbridled. Unbridled had a unique quality about him.

He finished second in the Preakness, which was extremely upsetting. He lost to a horse called Summer Squall. But something very special happened that day, even in defeat. I looked at Summer Squall’s pedigree and saw that he was by Storm Bird out a mare named Weekend Surprise. Then almost two years later on April 4, 1992, a beautiful horse named A.P. Indy sired by Seattle Slew won the Santa Anita Derby. His dam? Weekend Surprise. My head exploded realizing there was an entire world out there beyond just horses running around a track. There is a wealth of pedigree, history and a story to every single horse. Weekend Surprise started an obsession with researching pedigree of horses and the history of the industry. The obsession gets worse every year. I spend countless hours every year studying pedigree and the history of the game. It is the most fascinating thing in the world. There is so much more to this game than “gambling” and “degenerates.”

After the Triple Crown, Unbridled won an allowance race and then finished second in the Secretariat and the Super Derby.

The 1990 Breeders’ Cup Classic was probably one of the worst days in horse racing history. After Go For Wand, I was ready to completely walk away from the sport because I didn’t want to deal with the sorrow and pain of seeing a horse hurt. However, at the end of that very dark day, Unbridled came barreling between Thirty Six Red and Ibn Bey to restore some of my faith in the game:




In 1991, Unbridled's full brother named Cahill Road (so his father was Fappiano and his mother was also Gana Facil) was on the Triple Crown trail. For obvious reasons, he was my pick for the Derby. However, he injured his left ankle and foreleg in his Wood Memorial win and was retired. More about him later.

Unbridled had one more memorable race. At the start of his four-year-old year he raced against Housebuster, the previous year’s Sprint Champion, in the 7-Furlong Deputy Minister at Gulfstream Park:



A stunning run by a horse that is much better at longer distances (like the 10 Furlongs ). I truly believe this was his best race.

Unbridled finished off his career on November 2, 1991, with a third place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

He then went to stud at Claiborne farm. I vowed that someday I would have a daughter of Unbridled at my farm. However, his stud career got off to a great start and the price of buying a daughter of Unbridled started to rise every year. But maybe if I worked hard enough I could still afford to own Unbridled after I got out of law school. 

Then I saw this article in September 2001:


My heart sank reading this. He was only 14 years old. Unbridled had some complications and a few more surgeries in late September but I was relieved when he was able to return to Claiborne Farm on October 8, 2001. However, he had a massive colic attack and was euthanized on October 18, 2001. I never got to see him in person and it is one regret I still live with. I thought this article appropriately described the type of horse and patient he was:


I remember reading this article on my computer and crying at a table in the law library after I read it. Animals like him go directly to my heart and never leave.

I will probably never have an Unbridled mare, but maybe I can look out on my farm one day and see one of his grandchildren grazing in the sun. 

Luckily, his brother Cahill Road stood in Washington State at El Dorado Farm until his death in 2010. I was lucky enough to see him a few times. He also was a grand looking horse:



I got married last September and part of my wedding was horse racing themed. Each of the 22 tables was named after a favorite horse of mine. You can guess which horse the head table was named after:



I couldn't think of a better tribute to him.

Unbridled, if there is a horse heaven and I end up there, I want to be your groom (with a little g).  


Always love your animals,


Will

Monday, April 28, 2014

Third Weekend - Washington-Bred Winners

It’s Derby Week!

Ouch, the Pick 4 hurt yesterday. River of Aces scratched after I put out my ticket so we save a little of our investment, but still a rough day. Was not expecting Assessment to win but it was cool to see the old man back in the winners circle. Handicapping tab will be updated to reflect further deterioration of my dignity.

The good news is that 10 out of 19 races were won by Washington-breds last weekend.

Race 3 Saturday: Won by He’s Zuberrific in 110.12 for 6 Furlongs. He’s Zuberrific is by Matty G out of Popcorn Mike (Lord Carson). The gelding races for his breeder Ron Maus. Both He’s Zuberrific and Freedomofthehills set fast fractions in their last race on April 12th and were caught by Redsolocup in the stretch.

Race time on April 12th:

3 25KN2L
22.04
44.85
56.97
103.11

The highlighted numbers indicate the fastest times for the day at those distances. So Zubberrific and Freedom had the fastest ¼ and ½ on opening day (22.04 and 44.85). Remember, the speedy Camp Granada was running that day and these two ran a faster 4F time than he did. They burned themselves out last time. This time they were able to settle easier (even though their times were faster on Saturday; most times were faster on Saturday versus last Sunday) and ran 1st and 2nd. Pace makes the race. 

Race 8 Saturday: Washington-bred Mike Man’s Gold won the feature on Saturday. Mike Man’s Gold is by Liberty Gold out of Chedoodle. Chedoodle earned “Broodmare Mare of the Week,” which will most certainly be sponsored by Swagerty & Gardner Financial Group. They actually sponsored this race so conspiracy theories abound. Unfortunately, Chedoodle will be pushed until next week as we have a special Broodmare of the Week tomorrow in honor of the Kentucky Derby. Mike’s Man Gold holds the fastest time at 6F for the meet and did it on only 6 days rest. Scat Daddybaby ran 6F in 108.20 on April 20th. Mike’s Man Gold ran it in 108.01 (see charts below, the races are highlighted in green). Possible the track was a little faster on Saturday than last Sunday (April 20).  You can look at the charts and decide for yourself. Regardless, a great race by Mike’s Man Gold.

Date
Conditions
¼
½
5
5.5
6.0
6.5
4-20
3F M 7500
22.78
46.60
58.98




3F 7.5 N2L
22.90
45.91
58.09




F 12.5 N2L
21.59
44.73
57.05
103.58



F C3500
22.62
45.75
57.65

110.15


12.5K N2L
22.50
45.28
56.77
102.91



2500N3L
21.93
45.06
57.52
103.98



3 AlwN2L
21.98
44.82
56.78
103.13



C ALW
21.82
44.09
55.85

108.2


F M 5000
22.25
45.86
58.05
104.47




















Date
Conditions
¼
½
5
5.5
6.0
6.5
4-26
M 5000
22.16
44.99
57.16
103.56



C 2500
23.70
47.17


110.96


S3 NW2L
21.97
44.13
56.63

110.12


F 2500N2L
22.41
45.16
57.34

110.18


C 3500
21.66
44.46
56.90
103.47



10K
21.70
43.88
55.96

108.41


F 40K N2L
21.28
44.36
56.66
103.36



32K
22.36
44.32
55.89

108.01


3F M 7.5K
22.25
46.08
58.83
105.50











Race 9 Saturday: I feel like I am becoming an advertisement for the Birklid’s. Another winner for the small breeding operation as Cherokee Chelsea won in 105.50.  Owned by Karen Kirshner, Cherokee Chelsea was purchased for $2,000 at the WTBOA sale and is by Nationhood out of the mare Don’tmesswith Bess. Nationhood stands at Blue Ribbon Farm in Buckley:




Here are the details on Nationhood:


He also has his own Stallion Register page:


I am writing articles for the WTBOA on Coast Guard, Trickey Trevor, and Nationhood so you haven’t heard the last from me on Nationhood.

Saturday’s Fastest Times:

Fastest ¼ Mile: Ms. Sutherland – 21.28

Fastest ½ Mile: Whistle Cat - 43.88

Fastest 5 Furlongs: Mike’s Man Gold – 55.89

Fastest 5.5 Furlongs: Mebossman – 103.93

Fastest 6 Furlongs: Mike’s Man Gold – 108.01


Race 3 Sunday: Won by Jade Road in 110.05 for 6F. Jade Road is by Cahill Road out of the mare Jadelet (Skip Away). More on Cahill Road soon; very soon. Jade Road was bred by Dr. Orr of Shandra Smiles fame. Jade Road went wire-to-wire and looked sharp.   

Race 4 Sunday: Won by Seattle Game in 104.96. By Seattle Shamus out of A Good Plan (Game Plan). Seattle Game sat about 2 ½ lengths back and was given a nice ride by Rocco Bowen to just catch Pete’s Glory Girl. Seattle Game has won 16 races in 48 starts.

Race 5 Sunday: My horse No Claim Will Do ran 7th but a decent 7th (if there is such a thing). This was a very competitive group. The top three finishers were the logical contenders. The race was won by Mebossman in 103.93. I forgot the Boss was still a maiden until the entries came out. After all, Mebossman placed in three stakes last year.  Mebossman was a savvy $15,000 purchase at the 2012 WTBOA sale. By a favorite blue-collar sire of mine in Petionville, Mebossman is out of the outstanding Peaceful Wings. I will not go on about Peaceful Wings as she will most certainly be “Broodmare of the Week” in the near future with both Jebrica and Mebossman likely to win a feature race soon. A little taste:


Do yourself a favor and watch the run of first timer Kamaaina Blue and his gallop out. There is a reason that Rocco Bowen is on this horse. Bright future.

Race 6 Sunday:  Our Marshall Cahill changed tactics and comes off the pace to win in 104.33.  By Cahill Road out of Sister Isabel (Peterhof), Our Marshall Cahill set the pace in his last race but was able to sit right off the pace this time in a smart ride by Macho Camacho Flores.  The Dam sire is Peterhof who is 35 years old. I got a chance to hang with him last year:




Race 7 Sunday: Won by Knight Club in 104.91. By Matty G out of Knight Weave (Basket Weave), Knight Club sat a good trip off of See My Tail Lites and Zafari Nation. Knight Weave is the dam of Knight Raider who won over $90,000 in her career. Hopefully, we will see Knight Raider’s offspring at the sales soon.

Race 9 Sunday: Macho Camacho-Flores was back winning the feature with Stephanie Plum in 110.23. Stephanie Plum is by Memo out of Almost Skint (Last Tycoon). Almost Skint was a $100,000 purchase at the 1999 Keeneland November sale. Prior to her sale as a broodmare prospect she placed in Graded Stakes:


Stephanie Plum was a $2,500 purchase at the 2009 WTBOA sale. She is a half to Eclatante who was multiple stakes placed for the Duane and Sue Hopp. 10-year-old Eclatante is now part of the Castlegate broodmare band and produced Nancy Wake (and bake) (Harbor the Gold) in 2011. The 2012 colt sold to the R.E.V racing for $25,000 at the 2013 WTBOA sale. Eclatante has a Lucky Pulpit that is scheduled to be in the 2014 WTBOA sale, so we know whom the Hopps are rooting for on Saturday.

Race 10 Sunday: Won by Sunshine in Rio in 104.40. By Ginny’s Sunshine out of Snowbound in Rio (Snowbound). Sunshine in Rio was a $1,300 purchase at the 2012 WTBOA sale. Her half sister by Preachinatthebar was purchased by Mike Puhich for $2,100 at the 2013 WTBOA sale.  Preachinatthebar stands at Pulse Ranch. 



Sunday Times:

Date
Conditions
¼
½
5
5.5
6.0
6.5
4-27
M 12.5K
22.09
44.89
57.37

111.00


F M 5K
22.07
45.71
58.32
105.12



4K N3L
22.94
45.66
57.74

110.50


F C 2500
22.15
45.29
57.97
104.96



MSW
21.84
44.87
57.35
103.93



C 2500
21.66
44.83
57.54
104.33



3F 25K
22.11
45.31
58.06
104.91



15K
21.85
44.40
56.99

110.23


F 32K
22.06
44.79
57.29

110.23


S 3 7.5K
21.78
45.35
57.89
104.40




Fastest ¼ Mile: Kinzie’s Cahill– 21.66

Fastest ½ Mile: King of the Sky - 44.40

Fastest 5 Furlongs: Southern Solution– 56.99

Fastest 5.5 Furlongs: Mebossman – 103.93

Fastest 6 Furlongs: Assessment and Stephanie Plum – 110.23

Have a good derby week and always love your animals.

Will