Monday, April 4, 2016

2016 Emerald Downs Season - Pre-season Three Year Old Filly Rankings

Well, let's get this party started again. Finally re-energized after a few months off and a few days of sunshine, I am looking forward to the upcoming season at Emerald Downs. 

Just a recap of my last few months: bought some mares in partnership (true), got sick (true), building a turf course at Emerald Downs (not true and stop asking for one unless you figured out a way to pay for it), running as a third-party candidate for President because I can't believe what I am seeing on TV (the last part is definitely true), binge watched Fuller House (mildly true) and I'm still 100% committed to making our industry the best it can be (very true).  

Most of my time in the last few months has been spent holed up in my man cave working on a musical that combines two of Broadways most celebrated musicals: Alexander Hamilton and Cats. Set in the summer of 1787, it is about a Founding Father's cat that had a monumental impact on the Constitutional Convention and, therefore, United States history. As James Madison once didn't write: "Meow is the time for proportional representation." Story by me and music and lyrics by C & C Music Factory. 

Picture by Will. Anger from nap awakening by Cobweb. 

The feature race in the condition book for Saturday is an allowance race for 3yo fillies who are likely using it as a prep for the Seattle Handicap on May 8. The condition allows for any 3yo filly who has not won a race other than Maiden, Claiming, or Starter in 2016 or who has never won 2 races. In other words: everybody jump in the pool. So we will start the year with ranking the 3yo fillies at Emerald Downs going into this year. Remember, these horses change dramatically between their two and three year old season so there are likely to be dramatic changes as the year unfolds:  

(1) My Heart Goes On - Any discussion has to start with the 2yo filly champion who ran a respectable second in the Gottstein and won the Angie C. Has had a three 5 Furlong works: http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=9528391&registry=T. Martinez seems to have this horse ready to go and I expect that if she enters the race on Saturday she will be the favorite, possible odds on.  


This filly is tough and never seems to miss a beat. Her only knock is that she almost has the same name as a terrible Celine Dion song:


Garbage. 

(2) Invested Prospect - Fast and undefeated. Abraaj is making a name for himself as a sire (more to follow in another blog post on this) and this filly is out of the very good No Constraints. I really liked this filly at the sale and was tempted to buy her but John Maryanski was able to snatch her up for $25,000 (Maryanski is always trying to one up me but I must admit he has much better hair than I do). She has already earned that back and now has residual value (my favorite phrase in the english language and the one my barn always mocks me for) as a broodmare. Here is the Northwest Farm Stakes. 


The obvious question is how far can she go? However, she has the right trainer, she has probably matured, and the stakes win was only her second race so she has a right to gather more stamina. If she is entered this weekend in the Allowance race, she will likely have the lead. It is just a question of how far she can go and can she hold off My Heart Goes On.  

(3) Princess Kennedy - Back at Emerald Downs but yet to work. She last raced in January so it probably won't take her long to get fitness back. I expect to see her do damage as the distances get longer. In this blogger's opinion, she ran the most impressive race by a 2-year-old filly last year last year in the Shinpoch: 


Likely will be climbing up the ranks as the season progresses. 

(4) Find Joy - This is a Drosselmeyer that can sprint. Let me repeat, a Drosselmeyer that can sprint. She broke her maiden at 4.5 Furlongs at Pimlico and then proceeded to be fairly competitive in stakes competition and finished 3rd in Allowance Optional Claiming race at Del Mar. She just worked 4 furlongs at Emerald Downs so I doubt we will see her this weekend but is a horse you want to keep on your radar for the Seattle Handicap. You will find her Past Performances here: 


(5) Say it Slow - Yes, she only ran once and yes she finished fourth. However, she finished fourth in a stakes race and she ran very wide and put in a good run. She is by Haynesfield out of Chit Chatter. For people who have a spouse, kids, friends, and a promising career and don't have time to study pedigree for hours on end like me, Chit Chatter is the dam of Grade 1 winner I'm a Chatterbox. I'm a Chatterbox also finished third in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. So Dr. Mark and Puhich have some pedigree to work with and a promising future with this one. Just worked 4 furlongs at Emerald Downs. Might not see her until an MSW or the Seattle Handicap but watch out. 

Honorable Mentions: 

Kiss My Lulu. Her MSW race was impressive. She then ran third in the Angie C behind My Heart Goes On and Princess Kennedy and then threw in a clunker in the Northwest Farms Stakes. I am willing to give her a pass for that race and see what she come back with. 

Jerre to Carrie - She had an impressive Maiden Special Weight win in her last race but I'm not sure who she beat. Regardless, she was somewhat competitive in stakes races and she is by Congrats, who is on fire as a sire right now, especially of fillies. 

One horse that everyone should look out for: Sunrise Glow. The horse has not ran yet but will be serious business when she does. Just look at the pedigree: http://apps.keeneland.com/sales/Sep14/pdfs/600.pdf. She got her initial training at Pegasus but just recently posted her first work at Emerald Downs. 

Darrin Paul, Emerald Downs answer to Ted Cruz, has a trio of fillies that could have an impact on stakes races, including Sugar Seeker.

Freak Kiki has been solid but has been racing at Golden Gate. Not sure what her future plans are. 

Plenty of unraced 3yo fillies waiting in the wings so this list will keep changing. 

See you this weekend. 

Always Love Your Animals

Will 

2 comments:

Unknown said...

Interesting. We need to compare notes- I'm writig a fact inspired novella on the impact Thomas Jefferson's pet marmot had on his thoughts re: Agrarian economy and ordered liberty. -nw

Karen Angelos said...

I'd vote for you, God help us this November. Can't wait for this weekend so we can forget about the election.