Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Opening Day Picks at Emerald Downs

An interesting day yesterday on several fronts. The FX series The People v. O.J. Simpson ended and, spoiler alert, he was found not guilty. I guessed wrong. Chalk another one up for the justice system! Then Ted Cruz, politicians answer to Darrin Paul, won the Wisconsin Primary. Most importantly, Emerald Downs had its Media Day. As good as the Super Bowl Media Day but without having that child Cam Newton:


We also got a little more information on the .20 Pick 7, which is the investment that I am most excited about this year. With a 16.1% takeout and 7 Races, there will be plenty of carryovers allowing for a positive return on investment and a chance to beat the takeout. I will do a write up on this horizontal wager after this weekend when I have more information.

A quick review of the races and my picks for Saturday:

Race 1: I'm terrible at handicapping these lower level claiming races so my opinion in this race should matter little. I will go with Seaside Story and Ducoti as my top picks. They both love Emerald Downs and are dropping down to a level that they win at.

Race 2: Although I don't like the owner, I am going with Pebble Beach (what an elitist 1%er name for a horse) in this one. Been racing against better horses and the last two workouts have been pretty good. The most interesting horse in this race is Lady Diva. This horse has consistently been working every 6 days and has three 5 furlong works under her belt. Also, I wouldn't overlook Will Not who actually showed some decent speed in her prior race. Web of Demons certainly merits consideration. Interesting race.

Race 3: Six S Street looks like the one to beat off of the class drop. If you go back and watch the replay of his last race at Santa Anita the horse was in good position until something went wrong with the stirrups causing the jockey to make an adjustment and giving up valuable position. The horse wouldn't have won the race but showed enough that I give the horse a legite chance here. Allaboutthataction has the rail and speed in a 5 Furlong race which is always dangerous.

Race 4: Another Winter, Stephanie Plum and Nearlycocktailtime all have a decent shot in this race. Tim Floyd looks like he has 97 starters in for opening day. I like Another Winter, but maybe she will be better on the stretch-out as she showed late last year. That being said, she is 2 for 4 at the distance. Stephanie Plum won a nice Starter Allowance to end her season. This nice older mare is probably in the right spot for her return. You would think this race would be a little short for her, but she has placed in all 5 of her starts at the distance. Nearlycocktailtime is placed well and has her favorite jockey aboard.

Race 5: Classic Grand and Look Above look to be the only legitimate threats in this race.

Race 6:  Good luck with this one. I decided to go with the two inside horses Wine at Nine and Power Fleet. Power Fleet is working well and should be able to control the pace. Wine at Nice drops in price and does well off the layoff.

Race 7: Your guess is as good as mine. I ended up on Fire the Trainer. 

Race 8: My Heart Goes On deserves to be the favorite in this one. The 2yo champion has been putting in some solid drills for this race. Should be odds on and will run like it. Jerre to Carrie looks like she is progressing nicely in her works so she deserves a look. Congrats fillies are on fire lately and they get better with age so maybe we will see the same from her.

Race 9:  Highland Rose, Wicked Laugh and For Pitys Sake - Going to take the 3yo fillies against the older mares who haven't broke their maiden. This race is a mind bender.

Have a great opening day.

ALYA,

Will

1 comment:

Pebble Beach said...

So, my owner is repeatedly compared to a Presidential Candidate, I was born in KY and moved here when I was young, I campaigned with several of the best 2yos at Emerald, I often look at clouds and blue sky wondering if they remind me more of bales of alfalfa or wood shavings to sleep on....and some horse that has um worked 5f three times is more interesting than me??? Pebble Beach - out.