Wife is gone for the weekend (It is beginning to become a theme now that I think about it) and she left me this in the freezer:
I am newly married and nobody would argue that I have Master's Degree in communication with women, so I ask: (1) Is this a hint? Is this a passive-aggressive way of telling me the treadmill misses me? or (2) should I just shut up and be thankful she goes grocery shopping?
This ranking is a real snoozer so no need for seat belts.
By the way, Pharaoh "auto corrects" to the real spelling and I am not going to fight it.
(7) Mr. Z (Malibu Moon - Stormy Bear) - You ran in the Derby? When? I didn't catch it. You weren't suppose to be here except D. Wayne convinced Calumet to buy you so he can run something in here. Pass. However, I will say that this is a wild card with respect to the pace in the race. They could try to send Mr. Z to the front. He won't last long, but it could still impact the pace scenario that I describe below.
(6) Bodhisattva (Student Council - Dr. Cheryl P.) - In Buddhism it means Bodhisattva. You entered a Baltimore neighborhood with the equivalent of Omar Little (American Pharaoh), Avon Barksdale (Dortmund) and Marlowe Stanfield (Firing Line) fighting for the corners? Not likely to win that battle. "I got the shotgun, you got the briefcase. It is all in the game, right?"
(5) Divining Rod (Tapit - Precious Kitten) - Everyone's "wise guy" horse. I think people are stretching to find something outside the Derby field that they can bet on. I just don't think this horse can beat any of the top 4--let alone all of them to claim victory. Nice Lexington victory but it wasn't against anything like the horses in the Derby. He just hasn't beaten any horse of note.
(4) Firing Line (Line of David - Sister Girl Blues) - A little surprised with how well he ran in the Derby, so I will diss him again and put him further up the list then he probably should be. Although it appears that the 8 post is advantageous for Gary Stevens and Firing Line in this race, I actually don't think it will help him that much. Yes, he will be able to break and look to his left to see what Dortmund and Pharaoh are going to do out of the gate, but it seems to me the tactics have been pretty much established by the post position draw and he will be sitting in second or third but on the outside of Pharaoh this time--losing the ground that Pharaoh lost in the Kentucky Derby.
Derby Fact: Firing Line traveled 29 feet less than American Pharaoh. 8.5 feet in the equivalent of one length...math.....so a little under 3.5 lengths. This time Firing Line will be traveling about 29 feet more than Pharaoh.
(3) Danzig Moon (Malibu Moon - Leaveminthedust) - My longshot pick in the Derby and he didn't embarrass me (certainly not as much as Upstart did). He continues to improve and will be able to sit back and pick up some of the pieces in the final two furlongs. I believe that he will pass Firing Line in the final sixteenth of a mile to get third place. This horse will pop up and win a Grade 1 race at some point, but not here, not now.
Derby Fact: Danzig Moon traveled 43 feet less than American Pharaoh in Derby, the equivalent of roughly 5 lengths. The tables are turned this time and I imagine he will be losing ground versus Pharaoh.
(2) Dortmund (Big Brown - Our Josephina) - Martin Garcia will take some different tactics with Dortmund in this race versus the Derby. I believe that Dortmund runs much better with a target to run at. Breaking on the outside of Pharaoh will allow him to sit right outside of him, while keeping Firing Line behind him or on the outside of him--forcing Stevens to lose more ground. I think these tactics will improve Dortmund's Kentucky Derby position by one spot, but it will not be sufficient to win the race.
Derby Fact: Dortmund traveled 69 feet less than American Pharaoh, which is roughly 8 lengths. Dortmund will not have that 8 length advantage this time.
(1) American Pharaoh (Pioneerof the Nile - Littleprincessemma) - Picked him the derby and going to stick with him here. Call me crazy, but I actually think that the 1 post will help him. As stated above, I believe the tactics in this race for Dortmund will be different. Espinoza has the best horse in the race and will use his speed right from the gate--he is forced to with his post. He can't take back and risk being shuffled to 5th. This race will be similar to the one Pharaoh had in the Rebel and the Frontrunner. Will run them right off their feet for victory.
Derby Fact: This horse is very very good.
Always Love Your Animals,
Will
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