Sunday Pick 4 at Emerald Downs

*****UPDATE: There is a $5,933 carryover in the Pick 5 pool tomorrow. These carryovers are nice because you are cutting down (and possibly beating) the takeout rate because money that handicappers put in the pool today (Saturday) will be available for (Sunday) without any extra charge on the $5,933. Essentially free money. So if tomorrow's pool is an additional $20,000, the takeout would reduce the pool to roughly $15,580 after the 22.1% takeout. However, the $5,933 from today gets added in and the pool and you are essentially playing for $21,513 even though only $20,000 was bet in the pool. Make sense?

So I will stick with my Pick 4 for purposes of keeping stats and because I already posted it to everyone but I will likely dip into the Pick 5 with similar horses below because we are beating takeout with a carryover.  

Back to my original post from earlier today

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With the Derby coming up next week, I will be writing more nonsense than ever. Here is next week’s schedule:

Monday: Washington-bred winners analysis and feature race analysis

Tuesday: Special Broodmare of the Week

Wednesday: Derby Ranking 20-11

Thursday: Derby Ranking 10-1

Friday: Review of Saturday Emerald Card/Final Derby thoughts. 

There is one individual who is not happy every Derby Week because he gets less attention:

38 of the 59 horses racing on Saturday are Washington-breds.

45 of the 69 horses racing on Sunday are Washington-breds (before scratches)

I will be down at Emerald Downs to see No Claim Will Do (who I own a sliver of) in Race 5 on Sunday. He is on the rail in a good field that includes the return of Mebossman. Going to be rough but hoping for some improvement.

Might as well put a few shekels on the Late Pick 4 at Emerald while I am down there. I should quit while I am ahead $8.70 (see my 2014 Handicapping Tab) and proclaim victory for the Emerald season but it is April.  Also, with the amount of time I’ve spent on the intellectual exercise of figuring out these races, I am currently making .0003 cents an hour. Better than a Walmart employee but not enough to pay for my wife’s addiction to eyebrow waxing (Don’t worry, the couch is actually getting pretty comfortable).

I figured out a trick for all handicappers who are up money for the year. When my wife asks me how I am doing this year I say I am up 183,570. What she doesn’t realize is that I have converted my $8.70 profit into Vietnamese Dong (Yes, it is called Vietnamese Dong). The exchange rate is currently 21,100 Dong per each U.S. Dollar. Please note this trick REALLY does not work if you are down for the year. If you are down for the year might I recommend using the British Pound? As long as you don’t say “dollars” you are not a liar. It’s called lawyering. Look it up.

(Note: I also bet the Pick 5 (14% takeout) and, sometimes, the Pick 4 at Santa Anita but this blog is mostly about Washington racing and I want to focus on increasing live-on-live handle at Emerald Downs to support purses for owners and trainers so that will be my focus. Always remember the two most important things for financial viability for the entire business are: #1 increase handle, #2 increase owners)

Here we go:

Race 7 - #4 See My Tail Lites and #5 Knight Club. #4 See My Tail Lites ran an odd race last time. I watched the replay a few times and he was getting out on the turn and received an interesting ride. If this horse would have stayed on the rail, Tail Lites would have finished 3rd, ahead of #2 K K’s Wonderwoman. I expect this horse to run better this time. #5 Knight Club broke his maiden for $25,000 and then ran a good second in an allowance race against a good horse in Sunpenny. She scratched out of a race on Saturday to run here. Note that Enriquez chooses to ride this horse rather than the other Harwood runner. Love getting bottle service at a Knight Club.

Race 8 - #1 King of the Sky, #2 Edge Forward, #3 Southern Solution and #7 Rainier Ice. #1 King of the Sky scratched out of a Saturday race to run here. Gets Rocco and if you throw out the Phoenix Gold Cup (in which this horse smelled like a rabbit), this horse has been in good form and has a solid chance here. #2 Edge Forward been racing against slightly better at Golden Gate and comes in here with a nice work on April 12. #3 Southern Solution now has to face older horses but seems capable of handling it. One thing I like about this horse is that he has been claimed 3 times in his 7-race career. 5 wins out of 7 lifetime starts also requires inclusion in the horizontals (Pick 3s, 4s and 5s). #7 Rainier Ice is baaaaacckkkk! My favorite beer too!

My guess is that the Pabst Brewing Company will not come after me for using this image. I gave them a damn award for Breeder of the Year after all. 

He has been cold kickin’ it at Cantebury and Hawthorne but is now back at Emerald. Crossed the line first in the Pepsi Cola Handicap when a 3 year-old but got DQ’ed. He later finished second in the Budweiser Handicap (the irony). Two words: The works.

Race 9 - #2 Tabled With Gold, #3 River of Aces and #7 Smokin’ Grey. Really like the #2 and #7 in this race. #2 Tabled with Gold ran a better-than-it-looks race last time. River of Aces got away with some of the slower fractions of the day but Tabled With Gold was able to close into those fractions to miss by a half a length. Tabled with Gold also went 5-wide on the turn and appeared to have some lead changing issues. #3 River of Aces wins too much to not include. #7 Smokin’ Grey is a horse I have always really liked and I believe she has tons of talent. She had a very poor season a year ago but there is tons of promise here. I think the long break was probably very good for her. Nice 5 Furlong work.

Race 10 - #1 Little Abe, #3 Sunshine in Rio, #4 Spit and Shine and #6 Drop Valley. #1 Little Abe is by Cahill Road out of the good mare Campanita. This race is begging for a first time starter to win but it is not advantageous to be stuck on the rail in your first start. #3 Sunshine in Rio, #4 Spit and Shine and #6 Drop Volley all come out of the same race on April 13^th. Do yourself a favor and watch the replay. All three of them had problems. Rio broke slow and was forced wide on the turn, Spit had to check on the rail, Drop Volley started heading towards the concession stand on the turn (probably for some Rainier Ice). The race was a mess. I suspect that Sunshine in Rio is better than the other two but Enriquez needs to get him out of the gate. Honestly, this race could go any direction but adding ALL is too rich for me.

Pick 4 Investment

4,5/1,2,3,7/2,3,7/1,3,4,6

2 x 4 x 3 x 4 = 96 Combinations or $48 (for .50 bet)

In addition I am going to press a little with my favorite horses in the sequence and invest in another $1 Pick 4:

4,5/1,2,3,7/2,7/3

2 x 4 x 2 x1 = 16 Combinations for $16 (because we are betting a dollar rather than .50 it would be $16 instead of $8)

Total is $64, which is plenty of eyebrow waxes.

Always love your animals,

Will