There were
5 times I was convinced I knew who the Derby winner was to a certainty: Barbaro, Big Brown, Fusaichi Pegasus, Point
Given and Empire Maker. I was wrong on Point Given and Empire Maker, but both proved later on to be superior horses of their generation. Essentially, anything can happen in the derby.
I have no such
conviction this year. His Royal Chromeness may be on a horizontal wager (Pick
4 or Pick 5) of mine, but my goal is to try and beat him no matter how good I
think he is.
Besides Point Given and Empire Maker, there were other recent favorites under odds of 3-1 to lose the Derby:
1991: Hansel 2.5
– 1
1992: Arazi .90 -
1
1994: Holy Bull
2.4 -1
1998: Indian Charlie
2.7 – 1
2005: Bellamy Road
2.6 – 1
Long term strategy requires that you try to beat the favorite in the derby.
Let’s get this party started:
No. 20: We Miss Artie
– Post Position: 7 Odds: 50-1
By Artie Schiller
out of Athena’s Gift (Fusaichi Pegasus). Cannot see this
horse winning, hitting the board or even being in the top 10. His last race on
dirt was in the Fountain of Youth where he lost by 17 lengths. His dirt race
prior to that was a 7th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Won the Spiral
on a synthetic (non-dirt) surface. Got completely outworked by Intense Holiday on Sunday. If he wins I
will jump in the lake in the infield at Emerald Downs. Could get outrun by Art
Garfunkel.
No. 19: Harry’s
Holiday – Post Position: 2 Odds:
50-1
By Harlan’s Holiday
out of Daisy Mason (Orientate). Lost the Bluegrass by 28
lengths in his last start. Prior to that he lost to the aforementioned We Miss Artie in the Spiral. Last time
he raced on dirt he was 5th in a non-graded stakes race. Best thing
I can say about him is that I like his pedigree (I think Orientate mares are underrated).
Will be taking a vacation in the last 6 Furlongs of the race.
No. 18: Vinceremos
– Post Position: 9 Odds: 30-1
By Pioneerof the Nile
out of Kettle’s Sister (More Than Ready). Also lost the
Bluegrass by 28 lengths finishing 14th. He finished second in the
Tampa Bay Derby to Ring Weekend who would have a hard time beating any horse in
the top ten. Works lately at Churchill have not been good. In fact, he was
outworked by the highly-touted Danza
on Sunday. However, I love the pedigree on this horse. Pioneerof the Nile is
one of the hotter younger sires in the country and More Than Ready is destined
to be a good damsire. Best argument you can make for this horse is that he
hated the synthetic surface at Bluegrass and if you throw the last race out his
record is decent, but not good enough. Vinceremos is named after a therapeutic
riding center so that is pretty cool.
No. 17: Chitu – Post
Position: 13 Odds: 20-1
By Henny Hughes out
of Sea Gift (A.P. Indy). Adds speed to a race that has plenty of it. Got a good
post where he can sit and see what all the speed inside of him does. His last
race was in March where he beat Midnight Hawk in the Sunland Derby. Midnight Hawk came back in the Illinois Derby
and lost to a horse that just broke its maiden. That doesn’t help my faith in
Chitu. Henny Hughes as sire doesn’t give me confidence that this horse can get the distance. A.P. Indy as the broodmare sire helps. A.P. Indy won at a mile and a
half in the Belmont. Baffert has been having a hard time deciding what to do with this horse,
which also doesn’t give me much confidence. Named after a dog:
Or is that a Shih Tzu?
No. 16: General a Rod
– Post Position: 8 Odds: 15-1
By Roman Ruler out
of Dynamite Eyes (Dynaformer). This horse is a
blue-collar type of horse, but I think he has distance limitations. He lost
ground to Wildcat Red and Constitution when he stretched out in
the Florida Derby. His works have been less than stellar at Churchill. Will
provide speed to a race that has lots of it. The best thing going for him is
that his damsire is Dynaformer, which adds a little distance to his pedigree. However,
the dam’s only win was at 6.5 Furlongs.
No. 15: Vicar’s in
Trouble – Post Position: 1 Odds: 30-1
By Into Mischief out
of Vibrant (Vicar). Post-position draw was devastating. Rosie will have to send, adding more speed to the fire. His Louisiana Derby win was impressive, but he
got a clear lead and not much pressure. I simply can’t see him surviving a
speed duel with all the other horses above and being around at the end. Even if
he takes back, he has tons of horses coming down on him from the outside
trapping him. Didn’t like him much anyway but the post makes my opinion even lower. Into
Mischief is a revelation as a sire. The dam, Vibrant, was a sprinter. Ramsey’s
best chance for a win but that is not saying much. A picture of Into Mischief:
No. 14: Wildcat Red
– Post Position: 10 Odds: 15-1
By D’Wildcat out of Racene (Miner’s Mark). Another speed horse that will contribute to a likely
pace meltdown in the Derby. He is a hard-knocking horse that has some serious
guts. I have lots of respect for him but, again, I simply can’t seem him going
10 Furlongs. Plus, there is the long layoff having not raced since March. D’Wildcat's, his sire, best wins were at 6 and 7 Furlongs. A point in his favor is
that Miner’s Mark won the Jockey Club Gold Cup at 10 Furlongs. The dam, Racene,
was stakes placed at 9 Furlongs, but on the turf.
No. 13: Uncle Sigh
– Post Position: 3 Odds: 30-1
By Indian Charlie
out of Cradlesong (Pine Bluff). I’ve been suspect of the
New York horses all year. In my opinion, the West Coast, Keeneland, and
Fairgrounds horses are the stronger group of horses. This was proven when Wicked Strong shipped from Florida to
the run in the Wood Memorial and bested Uncle
Sigh and Samraat. The dam Cradlesong was
unraced, but her damsire is A.P. Indy (he won at a 12 Furlongs) so that helps
with any distance issues. Cradlesong’s sire, Pine Bluff, won the Preakness.
Uncle Sigh no doubt had a bad trip in the Wood Memorial, but I don’t see the
New York-based horses being able to compete with these. He is adding blinkers
for this race which likely means he will be near the front. Another horse with
speed to add to the pace scenario. Needs a good gate break out of post position
#3.
No. 12: Samraat –
Post Position: 6 Odds: 15-1
By Noble Causeway
out of Little Indian Girl (Indian Charlie). Again, another New
York horse who got beat by Wicked Strong
in the Wood Memorial. This horse has made 6 starts and has won 5 and finished
second once. Great record. Just don’t think he is good enough and I am worried
about the distance. Another horse with a
decent amount of speed (you can see where I am going with this). Little Indian
Girl’s only win was in a Maiden Claiming race at 8.5 Furlongs. Noble Causeway
finished 14th in the Kentucky Derby.
No. 11: Tapiture
– Post Position: 15 Odds: 15-1
By Tapit out of Free Spin (Olympio). This is where
things start getting tough. Anybody from #11 to #1 can get in the top four
positions. If you throw out Tapiture’s last race, you are looking at a serious
contender. He was hung out wide in the last race so he had an excuse for his
performance. After reviewing the race, I see a horse that did not appreciate
the extra distance and I am suspect of the talent level of the horses that were
at Oaklawn this season. I fear this horse may have reached his peak. On Derby
Day, you’re looking for a horse that is improving at the right time.
Tomorrow is #10 - #1
Always love your animals,
Will
No comments:
Post a Comment