Going to start a series of posts regarding breeding theories that are popular in this day and age. There are several breeding theories that are out there, but one of the most popular right now is the theory of nicking. Nicking is essentially looking for certain bloodline/pedigree combinations which produce superior racehorses. In other words, looking for combinations between the sire and his family and the dam and her family that happen to be more successful than the statistical average for racehorses.
Why is looking at nicking important? Well, in my view, breeding racehorses is essentially like playing any casino game; if you go in playing the game with no knowledge, the house has an advantage on you. If you go in with a strategy you are least tilting the odds a little more in your favor. No matter how smart you are about pedigrees, you are going to get those horses with a crooked foot, offset knees, OCD, 5 legs or fish gills. The goal is that when that good looking horse does comes out, you have picked the right sire and dam to make that horse a runner or a commercial success. As they always say in this business "The harder you work, the luckier you get."
Within the theory of nicking there are several classifications based on where they are in the family which breeders, buyers and bloodstock agents have to work with:
Why is looking at nicking important? Well, in my view, breeding racehorses is essentially like playing any casino game; if you go in playing the game with no knowledge, the house has an advantage on you. If you go in with a strategy you are least tilting the odds a little more in your favor. No matter how smart you are about pedigrees, you are going to get those horses with a crooked foot, offset knees, OCD, 5 legs or fish gills. The goal is that when that good looking horse does comes out, you have picked the right sire and dam to make that horse a runner or a commercial success. As they always say in this business "The harder you work, the luckier you get."
Within the theory of nicking there are several classifications based on where they are in the family which breeders, buyers and bloodstock agents have to work with:
(1) Sire-Dam Nick
(2) Sire-Broodmare Sire Nick
(3) Sire Line-Dam Nick
(4) Sire-Broodmare Sire Line Nick
(5) Sire Line-Broodmare Sire Nick
(6) Sire Line-Broodmare Sire Line Nick
(7) Sire-Key Ancestor Nick
There are a few more but these are the ones that I will focus on for now.
Today, we will look at the first two Nicks listed above: Sire-Dam Nick and the Sire-Broodmare Sire Nick. However, we will focus on Washington-bred and Washington-related horses as examples of how they work. This makes it more fun for me as I need a research challenge and you can identify with these nicks more readily and see some of them at future WTBOA sales.
First, let's get some basics out of the way. Nicking is only one pedigree theory and only one thing to consider when buying a yearling or trying to determine who to send your broodmare to. It is essentially one arrow in your breeding/buying quiver. You should not live or die by nicking, ever. Conformation matching, race record (including speed figures), biomechanics, AEI/CI statistics, birth rank, and female family are just some of the other things you should consider when looking at a mating or purchasing a horse. And no matter what you do to control the pedigree of the horse, there are several other important factors to determine in making a good racehorse: training, health, mental health, environment, lack of crazy paddock mates, luck and not being in the same generation as Stopshoppingdebbie. As a breeder it is more important that you get the horse in the right hands after the sale than you get the right sire.
Personally, I put less emphasis in nicking than others do. And I put even less and less emphasis on nicking as we start to descend in order from 1 to 7 listed above. The reason? Genetic variation starts to gets more and more likely the farther away you go from a horse. Each generation pretty much cuts in half the influence an ancestor has. The fact that Norther Dancer is in the 5th generation of the pedigree has a low impact for me versus how good the mare and the sire were on the track. However, I certainly pay attention to 1 thru 4 when looking at a horse to buy or determining who I should breed to. But the most important thing is whether the horse looks like an athlete. When I buy a horse at a sale, it is always a filly and I need some pedigree because I am more into the breeding side than I am into the racing side of the game (love both with a passion though). If that filly is good on the track and has good breeding, I have a pretty good broodmare on my hands.
Another basic we need to get out of the way is this: you get 50% of a horse's genes from the Sire and 50% from the Dam. However, it is not the same 50% from both. So you may get all the good genetics from your parents (if you have any) and your siblings may get the bad genes from your parents.
For instance, I am 5'3" but my older brother is 5'11". Clearly he got more of the tall "genes" that exist somewhere in the family. But in return, I got the George Clooney genes from both my parents because I am insanely better looking than my two brothers. However, most of the time, if you breed something small to something small, you will likely get small. Here is an example:
This:
For instance, I am 5'3" but my older brother is 5'11". Clearly he got more of the tall "genes" that exist somewhere in the family. But in return, I got the George Clooney genes from both my parents because I am insanely better looking than my two brothers. However, most of the time, if you breed something small to something small, you will likely get small. Here is an example:
This:
Plus this:
Will usually not equal this:
Also, I think the Keebler Elf is a dude so that is an issue.
Will usually not equal this:
Also, I think the Keebler Elf is a dude so that is an issue.
But small does not mean the horse cannot run. If you don't believe that I will meet you in playground after school, 3 o'clock.
It is just as likely that you will get 0% of the same genes from full siblings than you will get 100%. There are plenty of examples of full siblings that just could not run. Most likely you will get roughly around 50% of the same genes as your full siblings. For instance, the Manning brothers both got the genes to throw interceptions to the Legion of Boom.
So lets look at the first, the Sire-Dam nick. Pretty simple here: When breeding a particular sire to a particular dam, you get a better than average horse than from other breeding. Here are some current Sire-Dam combinations that are outstanding in Washington:
(1) Harbor the Gold with Julia Rose: This combination has produced Noosa Beach, Musical of My Soul, and Noosito. All three are Stakes Winners. But the analysis does not end there. The question now is (a) whether combining Harbor the Gold with Julia Rose is better than Harbor the Gold's production with other mares and (b) whether Julia Rose is better with Harbor the Gold than without. The answer to (b) is a resounding yes. When Julia Rose was crossed with Tiffany Ice, He's Tops and Soft Gold the results were not even close to being as good as with Harbor the Gold. The second question is a little more difficult to answer: Is Harbor the Gold with Julia Rose better than Harbor the Gold with other mares? Even though this is a little closer of a call because Harbor the Gold is such a prolific sire with several champions the answer to me is still yes; he had 3 champions from four matings with Julia Rose. She was a special mare and they were perfect together (just like me and aged bourbon).
(2) Katowice with Nightatmisskittys - These two met on E-Harmony and just rode that wave to producing No Constraints, Sundance Circle and Dandy Dora. In addition, the mating produced a $67,000 yearling at the 2011 WTBOA sale. No Constraints and Sundance Circle were champions. When Nightatmisskittys was combined with French Deputy, Skywalker, Jumron, and Orientate mares it was not even close to as good as none of them won stakes races. Although Katowice produced several six figure winners, it is clear he was better than his average when combined with Nightatmisskittys.
(3) Harbor the Gold - Bahati - This combination has produced Couldabenthewhisky, Del Rio Harbor and Legion of Boom. The first two are champions and Del Rio Harbor is on his way to another championship season. Legion of Boom was the 2013 WTBOA sales topper. Was Bahati better with Harbor the Gold? Yes. When she was bred to Tizbud and Soft Gold, it just wasn't the same. Was Harbor the Gold better than his average with Bahati? I would say yes. You could argue "well, Harbor the Gold is just a dam (get it) good sire." Absolutely he is, but when crossed with Bahati and Julia Rose, special things have happened above his lofty expectations and statistics.
(4) Liberty Gold - Peaceful Wings - This combination has produced Jebrica and Peaceful Reign. There is also another yearling Liberty Gold colt out of Peaceful Wings that will be in the sale this year. Jebrica is a champion and Peaceful Reign was a stakes winner. Is Liberty Gold better on average with Peaceful Wings than without? Liberty Gold has produced some decent horses but I would say definitively yes. The question that really needs to be answered is whether Peaceful Wings is better than average with Liberty Gold? That is harder to answer because Peaceful Wings is just a special mare who has produce 10 winners from other sires than Liberty Gold and four of those earned black type including Mebossman, Jade Green, Wings of Justice and Wild Wings. Your call, but I would argue there is a little extra there with the Liberty Gold as the sire but more of this is about the special mare.
Sire-Broodmare Sire Nick
So now we take a look a little deeper in the pedigree by examining the Sire and the Broodmare Sire rather than just the broodmare herself. Could you argue that the Harbor the Gold - Basket Weave (the sire of Julia Rose) combination is a good cross? Yes, but here we are looking for more than just one mare that has produced good foals from a particular sire. We are looking for a variety of mares from a sire that do well with a particular sire.
I am only focusing on current sires for this part because that can help people the most in making purchasing and breeding decisions. This creates some issues as we have a lot of young sires standing here which have not produced horses old enough to start running, let alone develop a good cross with another broodmare sire. But I will give it a go:
(1) Harbor the Gold - Slewdledo Mares - This combination has produced Hollywood Harbor, Stikine Slough, Belladiva, My Chief, Basin Gold, and Cruzin the Harbor. Hollywood Harbor was champion 2-year-old and Sprinter. Belladiva placed in a stakes race recently. My Chief has been having a solid year. This cross is just beginning to get started so there is more to come.
(2) Private Gold - Basket Weave Mares - This combination has produced Dallon's Gold, Say Say and Miss Cygone (all Stakes Winner or Stakes Placed).
(3) Private Gold - Slewdledo Mares - This combination has produced Special Holiday, Primadonna Pearl and Seventypercentcocoa. Special Holiday is a Stakes Winner and Primadonna Pearl is Stakes Placed. Seventypercentcocoa is a hard knocking mare with plenty of earnings.
(4) Nationhood - Demons Begone Mares - This is one to keep an eye on. Nationhood is a young sire (his first crop is just 3 year olds) but he already has three winners from three different Demons Begone mares. This includes Stakes Winner Find Your Spot. In addition, Just a Love and Uptownfreddybrown are both winners. This is statistically significant in that Nationhood has had 6 winners this year, so 50% are from Demons Begone mares. However, we need to see a little more of this cross to have a good enough sample size to rely on. So far so good.
(5) Nacheezmo - Toooverprime - This combination has produced double digit winners to date. By far the best has been Roveing Patrol. Because the Mungers have so many Toooverprime mares, there is a large sample size, but only one has been Stakes Winner so I would like to see a little more here at some point.
That is the start of our exploration of nicking. If you think I missed something please feel free to comment below or email me and I will include it in our next segment. Next time we will dive into (3) Sire Line-Dam Nick and (4) Sire-Broodmare Sire Line Nick.
Always Love Your Animals,
Will
It is just as likely that you will get 0% of the same genes from full siblings than you will get 100%. There are plenty of examples of full siblings that just could not run. Most likely you will get roughly around 50% of the same genes as your full siblings. For instance, the Manning brothers both got the genes to throw interceptions to the Legion of Boom.
So lets look at the first, the Sire-Dam nick. Pretty simple here: When breeding a particular sire to a particular dam, you get a better than average horse than from other breeding. Here are some current Sire-Dam combinations that are outstanding in Washington:
(1) Harbor the Gold with Julia Rose: This combination has produced Noosa Beach, Musical of My Soul, and Noosito. All three are Stakes Winners. But the analysis does not end there. The question now is (a) whether combining Harbor the Gold with Julia Rose is better than Harbor the Gold's production with other mares and (b) whether Julia Rose is better with Harbor the Gold than without. The answer to (b) is a resounding yes. When Julia Rose was crossed with Tiffany Ice, He's Tops and Soft Gold the results were not even close to being as good as with Harbor the Gold. The second question is a little more difficult to answer: Is Harbor the Gold with Julia Rose better than Harbor the Gold with other mares? Even though this is a little closer of a call because Harbor the Gold is such a prolific sire with several champions the answer to me is still yes; he had 3 champions from four matings with Julia Rose. She was a special mare and they were perfect together (just like me and aged bourbon).
(2) Katowice with Nightatmisskittys - These two met on E-Harmony and just rode that wave to producing No Constraints, Sundance Circle and Dandy Dora. In addition, the mating produced a $67,000 yearling at the 2011 WTBOA sale. No Constraints and Sundance Circle were champions. When Nightatmisskittys was combined with French Deputy, Skywalker, Jumron, and Orientate mares it was not even close to as good as none of them won stakes races. Although Katowice produced several six figure winners, it is clear he was better than his average when combined with Nightatmisskittys.
(3) Harbor the Gold - Bahati - This combination has produced Couldabenthewhisky, Del Rio Harbor and Legion of Boom. The first two are champions and Del Rio Harbor is on his way to another championship season. Legion of Boom was the 2013 WTBOA sales topper. Was Bahati better with Harbor the Gold? Yes. When she was bred to Tizbud and Soft Gold, it just wasn't the same. Was Harbor the Gold better than his average with Bahati? I would say yes. You could argue "well, Harbor the Gold is just a dam (get it) good sire." Absolutely he is, but when crossed with Bahati and Julia Rose, special things have happened above his lofty expectations and statistics.
(4) Liberty Gold - Peaceful Wings - This combination has produced Jebrica and Peaceful Reign. There is also another yearling Liberty Gold colt out of Peaceful Wings that will be in the sale this year. Jebrica is a champion and Peaceful Reign was a stakes winner. Is Liberty Gold better on average with Peaceful Wings than without? Liberty Gold has produced some decent horses but I would say definitively yes. The question that really needs to be answered is whether Peaceful Wings is better than average with Liberty Gold? That is harder to answer because Peaceful Wings is just a special mare who has produce 10 winners from other sires than Liberty Gold and four of those earned black type including Mebossman, Jade Green, Wings of Justice and Wild Wings. Your call, but I would argue there is a little extra there with the Liberty Gold as the sire but more of this is about the special mare.
Sire-Broodmare Sire Nick
So now we take a look a little deeper in the pedigree by examining the Sire and the Broodmare Sire rather than just the broodmare herself. Could you argue that the Harbor the Gold - Basket Weave (the sire of Julia Rose) combination is a good cross? Yes, but here we are looking for more than just one mare that has produced good foals from a particular sire. We are looking for a variety of mares from a sire that do well with a particular sire.
I am only focusing on current sires for this part because that can help people the most in making purchasing and breeding decisions. This creates some issues as we have a lot of young sires standing here which have not produced horses old enough to start running, let alone develop a good cross with another broodmare sire. But I will give it a go:
(1) Harbor the Gold - Slewdledo Mares - This combination has produced Hollywood Harbor, Stikine Slough, Belladiva, My Chief, Basin Gold, and Cruzin the Harbor. Hollywood Harbor was champion 2-year-old and Sprinter. Belladiva placed in a stakes race recently. My Chief has been having a solid year. This cross is just beginning to get started so there is more to come.
(2) Private Gold - Basket Weave Mares - This combination has produced Dallon's Gold, Say Say and Miss Cygone (all Stakes Winner or Stakes Placed).
(3) Private Gold - Slewdledo Mares - This combination has produced Special Holiday, Primadonna Pearl and Seventypercentcocoa. Special Holiday is a Stakes Winner and Primadonna Pearl is Stakes Placed. Seventypercentcocoa is a hard knocking mare with plenty of earnings.
(4) Nationhood - Demons Begone Mares - This is one to keep an eye on. Nationhood is a young sire (his first crop is just 3 year olds) but he already has three winners from three different Demons Begone mares. This includes Stakes Winner Find Your Spot. In addition, Just a Love and Uptownfreddybrown are both winners. This is statistically significant in that Nationhood has had 6 winners this year, so 50% are from Demons Begone mares. However, we need to see a little more of this cross to have a good enough sample size to rely on. So far so good.
(5) Nacheezmo - Toooverprime - This combination has produced double digit winners to date. By far the best has been Roveing Patrol. Because the Mungers have so many Toooverprime mares, there is a large sample size, but only one has been Stakes Winner so I would like to see a little more here at some point.
That is the start of our exploration of nicking. If you think I missed something please feel free to comment below or email me and I will include it in our next segment. Next time we will dive into (3) Sire Line-Dam Nick and (4) Sire-Broodmare Sire Line Nick.
Always Love Your Animals,
Will
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