Opening Day at Emerald Downs - Race Card Analysis

Finally, opening day is here! Future posts will focus on breeding, pedigree and other industry thoughts but let’s get the year started with increasing our live handle at Emerald Downs. 

First, I would highly advise people to sign up for BetEmerald.com so you can invest on your computer, Ipad, Iphone or Android. I used it last weekend for Santa Anita Derby day and it works great although it took some of my money (It was my fault, not the website's). No standing in line, easy to use and you can invest at other tracks.  Plus using this benefits our Owners’ Purse Account versus betting through an ADW. Always try to invest at Emerald Downs on our live races! It helps our horses, owners, racetrack, trainers, backstretch workers and breeders. 

Personally, I focus on investing in the early Pick 4 and Pick 5 at Emerald Downs so most of my picks will focus on horses that I think can win rather than a horse that can clunk up for third or fourth in a Trifecta or Superfecta. You could use the picks below for win wagers, daily doubles, and Pick 3s.  These are my picks, no guarantees. Who knows? After opening weekend you may end up using my picks as a way to exclude horses.

Early Pick 4

Race 1 Picks: #3 Supreme Ballerina and #5 Poly Squat – There are not many avenues to go in the race so I ended up on #3 Supreme Ballerina and #5 Poly Squat. #3 Supreme Ballerina is the likely winner based on her fitness and slight drop down in class. A Beyer number in the 40s is likely to win this. #5 Poly Squat is an interesting horse. She has not raced since September of 2012 but has some decent works and comes from a barn that gets 31% off a layoff of 180 days or more (not sure what the stats are on over a year-and-a-half layoff). Although her Beyer numbers are in the 30s, those were when she was just a 3 year old and she is both older and more athletic and likely to put up higher numbers. You could single #3 Supreme Ballerina but I would add #5 Poly Squat.

Race 2: I chickened out and went ALL in this race. Lame, but each horse has something going for it. #1 Cherokee Chelsea gets the rail after always racing wide. #3 Thatsthewayweroll is competitive if you throw out the last race. #4 Reflective Glory recently ran a good race at the $5,000 level. #5 Frosty Sunrise is dropping in class, has good works, has Rocco Bowen and comes from a high percentage barn. #6 Trinistar has been facing better at Golden Gate and has raced recently. #7 Lita’s Kat is dropping from a Maiden Special Weight, has good recent works and I don’t want Keith Swagerty to dunk on me for not picking his horse. #8 Wemissstacy had a good recent work and raced decently last year at the $12,500 level. The only horse I left out originally was #2 She’s Teed Off. However, if I leave the horse off that is the one that will win. I call it the Scat Daddybaby Syndrome. One time Scat Daddybaby was the only horse I left off a Pick 5 ticket in a race. Guess what happened:

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?BORP=P&STYLE=EQB&DAY=D&tid=EMD&dt=08/11/2013&ctry=USA&race=9

Never again. Scat Daddybaby is never to be discussed in my house (Sorry, Mike.)

Race 3: #1 FreedomoftheHills, #2 Orito, #7 Moony Moony, and #8 He’s Zuberrific. This is an interesting race and was hard to narrow down. #1FreedomoftheHills puts blinkers on and had a bullet work on April 2. #2 Orito comes from the Gillihan barn, which I have great respect for.  He actually ran a pretty decent race in the Dennis Dodge stakes last time finishing right with Mebossman and Stikine Slough, both good horses. #7 Moony Moony ran a good second in the Cahill Road Stakes to Dallon’s Gold beating Stikine Slough (sorry Jody) and Chu and You (Again, sorry Mike). The April 4th workout shows the horse is ready. #8 He’s Zuberrific faced tougher at Golden Gate but if you throw those two races out he competes with this group. Shout out to #4 Redsolocup whose dam is Trainingat the Bar, a horse I used to own a small percentage of. This horse is nice and it is great to see her offspring on the track.  

Race 4: #4 Lotta Attitude and #6 Timeless Pleasure.  Full disclosure: I own a piece of #2 Wedding Kake so I will leave her out of my analysis (I have enough invested in her already so if she wins I am happy even if I get bounced out of the Pick 4). I adore her so don’t laugh if she does not run well. I will have a future post about her pedigree and general awesomeness. 

#4 Lotta Attitude not only describes my dog Logan but is also the name of a horse that has been knocking at the door of victory for a while. #6 Timeless Pleasure is owned by a place called Northwest Farms. Do they have good horses? Who is Tom Wenzel? I went back and watched Timeless Pleasure’s last race and this horse was closing ground on a good field last year at 6 Furlongs. The question now is whether the horse has enough ground in a 5.5 Furlong race to get up in “time” (get it?). This is one to certainly watch as the races get longer. She is a half to Puxa Saco who is the dam of stakes winner Exclusive Diva (Bernardini). We will get more into this and other excellent families in future posts as time and wife permit.

#1 My Special Eyes has a great grass pedigree being by English Channel out of a Dynaformer mare. Regardless of pedigree, the horse had a great work on the dirt on March 31^st. #3 Jeweloftheharbor was a $50,000 purchase at the 2012 WTBOA sale.

Early Pick 4 Investment Structure:

The Pick 4 and 5 ticket structure I typically use comes from the book Exotic Betting by Steve Crist (hope he is doing better). I can’t recommend it enough. For sake of simplicity this weekend I will just put one big “caveman” ticket together and later post more in depth about my more sophisticated investment structure.

3,5/All/1,2,7,8/4,6

So 2 x 8 x 4 x 2 = 128 combinations or $64 for a .50 Ticket.

If that is too rich for your blood (mine is Irish so it’s not rich but loves investment in horses) you can single the #3 Supreme Ballerina in the first race and cut your ticket cost in half to $32.

Race 5: Not part of the Pick 4 or Pick 5. Go Perfect Pie!! Box with River of Aces

Pick 5 – Starts in Race 6.

Race 6: #1 Making Fire, #4 State Capital, #6 Always the Same, #7 Bid for Pride, and #8 He’s All Heart. All these horses make sense in a race I can’t make sense of. #6 Always the Same will likely be favored but the claim at $8,000 by Metz and immediate drop down to this level concerns me.

Race 7: #2 San Sebastian and #3 Light My Heart.  Everybody is in if you have not won a race since April 1, 2014 (so pretty much everyone) or if you have never won 4 races. #2 and #3 seem to be better than the rest of this field. You may be able to single #2 San Sebastian but #3 Light My Heart had a great race last time out and can’t be ignored.

Just wanted to point out the good pedigree on #1 Only Be Cause. He is a Giant’s Causeway out of an Alydar mare bred by the Sangster family. Not sure whether his 5^th place finish in the Art Smith Memorial Handicap at Prineville will stand up here but he has some decent works.

Race 8: #3 Brock Says, #4 Whistle Cat, #5 Memphis Mobster and #9 Rezar.  I am going to be kicked out of the Wedding Kake syndicate by Jody Peetz and Chris Stenslie for not picking #1 Jade Road (but I pay my bills on time…sometimes). #3 Brock Say has an advantage of racing recently at Golden Gate and running decently. #4 Whistle Cat is speedy and if he runs back to the race on February 1^st he should win this. #5 Memphis Mobster’s last two races were solid and the cut back doesn’t bother me because he was capable of winning at 6 Furlongs on December 11^th. #9 Rezar has been working well and was competitive at higher levels last year. The owners of Rezar also took the name my racing stable should have: Mediocre Racing. #6 Storming Kentucky is a scratch.

Race 9:  #1 Camp Granada. I spent my summers as a kid at Camp Granada (or was it Camp Waskowitz? Can’t remember.) so this is a sentimental pick for me (Isn’t Camp Granada where Reagan sent troops in 1983? No, that is Grenada: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Grenada. Camp Granada is actually a board game. I am too young to remember so I went to Wikipedia:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camp_Granada). Never mind all that, he is fast, back at Emerald Downs, has the rail, and is at the right distance.  His dam, Pleas Write was one of my favorites at the track. Rumor has it Pleas Write’s daughter, Rewritten, just had a Forestry colt. Best of luck to Robin Mason with that horse!

#2 Fist Full of Green and #4 Perfect Night I have mucho respect for but need to single somewhere. #4 Perfect Night, Wasserman’s full brother, is now a 5 year old and that is when the Cahill Road’s start hitting their stride. Looking forward to seeing him mature this season.

Race 10: #1 Duke Street King, #2 Attempt.  You can just taste the chalk, huh? #1 Duke Street King has been racing against bottom level claimers at Santa Anita. However, that bottom is $30,000. He now drops down to $5,000. The short distance is the question. #2 Attempt is the horse to beat if you can forgive the last race, which you can because it was in a Maiden Special Weight at Golden Gate and he was on the lead in what the DRF called a “suicide pace.” His two races prior put him in the winner’s circle.  The three outside horses will be prices and are not bad options if you have extra money from the Pick 4 you hit earlier in the day.  

Pick 5 Investment

1,4,6,7,8/2,3/3,4,5,9/1/1,2

5 x 2 x 4 x 1 x 2 = 80 Combinations or $40 for a .50 investment.  

If you are feeling brave you can single #2 San Sebastian in the 7^th Race and put the three outside horses in the 10^th Race to get some odds. That would look like: 

1,4,6,7,8/2/3,4,5,9/1/1,2,5,6,7

5 x 1 x 4 x 1 x 5 = 100 combinations or $50 for a .50 investment.

Diatribe Alert: Notice how I have called everything an investment? I have been handicapping races for 25 years now. I cannot count the hours/years of time I put into understanding the entire industry so when people call what I do gambling it irritates me. I have graduated from law school, taken two bar exams, tried to train an unruly dog, been to trial a few times and have tried games like chess and poker. However, none of this compares to the intellectual challenge of handicapping a horse race. I do it for the intellectual stimulation. If the stock market is investing but this is “gambling” look at the last six-year roller coaster ride and the fact that people think the business that owns Candy Crush is worth $7 Billion. I love to follow the stock market and I always invest wisely but I feel good and confident about investing a sliver of my earnings in some great thoroughbred athletes that I educate myself about. Always invest wisely however! 

I promise nothing with my picks. Just having fun and hoping to get people interested in racing.

Good luck on opening weekend. If Wedding Kake wins you will find me in the bar after the race! Have a great year and love your animals.