Preakness Rankings #10 - #1

Here are my Preakness rankings #10 - #1. By the way, I had much more fun doing this than revising Bylaws. Go figure.

Again, thanks to Carly Kaiser for taking these pictures and allowing me to use them. 

(10) Ring Weekend – By Tapit out of a Cryptoclearance mare. The offspring of Tapit’s are running so well right now it is hard to count this horse out. However, the only horse Ring has ever beat that you have heard of is Vinceremos (which rhymes with John Stamos) and he finished 17^th in the Kentucky Derby and 14^th in the Bluegrass Stakes. Will be near the pace but I see him fading in the stretch.

You gotta miss the Tanner family. (Carly doesn't take credit for this picture).

(9) Dynamic Impact – Tiznow out of a Smart Strike mare. Love that pedigree, but I don’t think this horse has the experience to win this race. He has won two races total (his last two) and beat Midnight Hawk in the Illinois Derby in his last race. Midnight Hawk would have finished in the bottom half of the Kentucky Derby field. This horse is improving, but I would like to have seen one more race from him before his Preakness attempt. 

(8) Ria Antonia – I can hear the cries of sexism all the way from Buckley and Enumclaw, but this horse should not be in this race. To counter those cries, I will make the following unremarkable statement: If Untapable were in this race, she would be ranked #1 and beat this field. Ria ran terribly in the Kentucky Oaks. Her only stakes win came in a disqualification in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies that actually cost me the Pick 5 (so I am not happy with her already). She ran second in the Santa Anita Oaks, but the West Coast fillies are not as good as the fillies from the East. Sorry, but true.

(7) Pablo Del Monte – Besides being able to sell you canned vegetables, he also possesses speed that will be helpful to the closers in this race like Kid Cruz. I really, really like this horse if he races at Keeneland (In fact, he was my top pick for the Bluegrass Stakes where he finished third). His only two wins are at Keeneland. However, this is dirt racing at Pimlico and the presence of Bayern in the race makes the pace situation not in his favor. I like this horse, just not necessarily in this situation. 

(6) Bayern – He adds plenty of speed to an already fast pace. However, I am not convinced that this horse wants to go this distance. He was not able to hold on in the Arkansas Derby and that was a sixteenth of a mile shorter than this race. Also, horses were getting to him in the Derby Trial at a mile even though the pace was a little faster. However, the pace will not be much easier here. He will certainly be up front with Mr. Canned Goods, but I can see him starting to falter in the stretch because of the pace. 

(5) Kid Cruz – The local hope for the race. He has already won at Pimlico when he won the Federico Tesio Stakes. The pace situation sets up for him because he is a closer and the pace looks to be fast (I said the same thing about the Kentucky Derby, but that turned out to not be true). His sire is Lemon Drop Kid and he is out of a Tale of the Cat mare, so the distance should not be a big issue. Typically in the Preakness, a local horse will hit the board. Very good chance of getting a piece of the Trifecta or Superfecta.

(4) General A Rod – G-Rod ran a much better race than it appears on paper. Go back and watch the Kentucky Derby and focus on him. He was making a good move in the stretch, but then had to steady in the final sixteenth of the race when he could have passed a few more horses. I originally had him ranked #3 but on reviewing the tape of the Kentucky Derby a few more times, I moved Ride on Curlin ahead of him because (1) RoC had a worse trip and (2) RoC should have been ridden completely different than he was.
 

(3) Ride on Curlin – Poor kid got a terrible ride in the Kentucky Derby. In order to get the rail, his jockey, so he could keep his nickname intact, brings the horse out of the gate and immediately moves to the rail behind every other horse. This is problematic for a few reasons. First, the jockey failed to secure a decent position and forced the horse to have to pass 18 other horses to win. Second, it took the horse completely out of his game. This horse has never been further than 6 lengths off the lead at the first call in any of his races, but somehow he was 18 lengths back after the first call in the Derby. Third, the jockey gets stuck on the rail and keeps him on the rail on the far turn even though there is no way you are getting through on the rail. Only Moses could have gotten the hole he needed to go through in order to win the race. The jockey then wings him way outside and the horse closes decently to run 7^th. Wasn't your fault Ride on Curlin. You deserved better.

The good news is that Ride on Curlin got a much needed jockey change with Joel Rosario aboard, so I expect him to be closer to the lead and a better placing from this horse. 

(2) California Chrome – Yes, I did it again. Didn't put him #1. Mainly because I want to be controversial (sort of like the Red Wedding episode) to draw a bigger viewership and huge advertising revenue. This horse has a 60% chance of winning this race. The only knock against him now is that he is only on two weeks rest and Art Sherman has admitted that he would like to have a little more time with him. However, he appears to have come out of the Derby in fine form. Also, the typical way a horse wins the Preakness (sitting right off the pace) suits him perfectly. If he wins, it will surely bring some good attention to the sport as we move on to Belmont for the Triple Crown.

(1) Social Inclusion – Besides Untapable and maybe Constitution, I believe he is the most talented 3 year old in the country. I picked him because I am never socially included in anything. Actually, I picked him because this colt ran the best race in the Wood Memorial and the horses in that race (Samraat and Wicked Strong) came back and ran well in the Kentucky Derby. In the Wood, Social Inclusion broke from the outside and set all the pace before tiring in the stretch. This horse should be able to sit right off of Mr. Canned Goods and Bayern and hopefully get the jump on California Chrome. My only concern is that I wish he had one more race under his belt because he is not that seasoned. Hoping talent can overcome experience in this race. 25% chance of winning this race but much better odds than California Chrome. 

Probably best to do a Superfecta that looks like this:

Social Inclusion and Chrome

over

Social Inclusion, Chrome, Ride on Curlin, and A-Rod

over

Social Inclusion, Chrome, Ride on Curlin, A-Rod and Kid Cruz

over

Social Inclusion, Chrome, Ride on Curlin, A-Rod, Kid Cruz, Bayern, Dynamic Impact and Pablo Del Monte

$1 Super will cost $90.

Always Love your Animals,

Will