Belmont Hangover

Belmont Hangover

*It has come to my attention that the .50 payoff for the Pick 4 on Sunday was actually $425 instead of $106 listed below (1/4 of $425). So there was a legitimate reason why I questioned the payoff. However, I based my below analysis on equibase:

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/BEL060714USA11.pdf

I will delete what I wrote below. 

We wait again. First, let’s give kudos to California Chrome and Art Sherman on what they accomplished. It is quite a feat for the horse and trainer. 

Second, the post race comments by Steve Coburn were way out of line. Calling Robert S. Evans and Clement cowards and cheaters showed a serious lack of judgment and class. The Evans family has been building a great breeding empire for decades through their father and Robert’s brother Edward. They are knowledgeable breeders who bred a superior horse for the Belmont. When I lose a race with one of my horses (and that pretty much happens every race), I will congratulate the owners if I know who they are. Next time maybe I should get mad that they did not run in the State-Bred Maiden 7.5K that I ran in two weeks before. 

Some people compared Coburn's rant after the Belmont to the rant that Richard Sherman had after the NFC Championship game. The difference is that Coburn was wrong and Sherman was right that Crabtree is a mediocre receiver.

For those who didn't see it, here is Coburn’s rant:

But that should not be a reflection of the other owner and especially the trainer and the horse. California Chrome is a good horse and deserves credit for what he accomplished. And for Art Sherman to keep a win streak like that alive is extremely admirable. For reasons I stated before, I didn’t think the horse would win this race when so many others that were better horses and/or had weaker fields did not prevail in winning the Triple Crown (Spectacular Bid, Silver Charm, Point Given, Real Quiet, Pleasant Colony, Big Brown, Smarty Jones, etc.).  

However, I believe the best horse won the race on Saturday. Here is a picture of Tonalist taken by Carly Kaiser who was at the race: 

Here were my pre-race rankings and how they finished.

(11) Matterhorn – 8^th

(10) Matuszak – 10^th

(9) General A Rod – 7^th

(8) Ride on Curlin – Supposedly bled during the race. According to Coburn this should have been a three horse race with Ride on Curlin, General A Rod and California Chrome. That would have been thrilling and the handle would have been fantastic. 

(7) Wicked Strong – 4^th.

(6) Commanding Curve – 9^th. Closing kick better suited to 9 to 10 Furlong races I guess. 

(5) Commissioner – 2^nd. As I stated in my previous post, this horse was the best bred for the Belmont. He ran a huge race and just got nailed at the wire. This horse is coming along quicker than I thought and will be a force to be reckoned with in the future. Winstar has another great stallion prospect that you can breed to if you want a classic distance horse.

(4) California Chrome – 4^th. Looked out of gas at the top of the lane but fought on.

(3) Tonalist – 1^st. Tapit with a Pleasant Colony mare on the bottom. Yes, please.

(2) Medal Count – 3^rd  - Dynaformer helps that last quarter of a mile.

(1) Samraat – 6^th. Not making excuses, but I am making excuses. He was suppose be near the lead but got in a lot of trouble on the first turn (watch the replay) so he was shuffled back to last and made one run. He actually was finishing faster than anyone else. Better race than it looked.

I will give myself a C+

The undercard of the Belmont was something really special. I was way off with some of my picks, a little bit closer with others.

Woody Stevens

Bayern ran much much better than I thought he would. This horse has King’s Bishop and BC dirt mile written all over him. He also broke from the rail in a 13 horse field and managed to beat a pretty solid group.

Acorn

I picked Sweet Reason to finish second in this race because she was cutting back from two turns to one turn, which suits her best. She got up and won just in time. The surprise was how poorly My Miss Sophia ran.

Ogden Phipps

My two favorite older fillies in the country are Midnight Lucky and Close Hatches. It was nice to see Close Hatches win but I still believe that Beholder is the best older mare in the country and that will prove out to be the case by the end of the year.

Just A Game

Just a complete miss for me. I was close to putting Coffee Clique in my Pick 4 but decided against it at the last minute to open up space for a few more in the Met Mile. I simply thought the more seasoned Grade 1 horses would be around in this race but they completely failed.

Met Mile

Palace Malice ran a fantastic race from the one post in the Met Mile. Clearly, the best horse in the field but the odds were a little low for my taste with that post. How rare is it that you have a Belmont winner that also wins the Met Mile. Future good stallion written all over this one. Conquistador Cielo did both of them on six days rest back in 1982. He had a $36.2 million dollar stallion deal by the end of the year. I expect Malice will have a deal with Lane’s End pretty soon. Just a guess at the stud farm since they stand Curlin.

Manhattan

Hi, I am Real Solution and I finally decided to actually win a race after over two years. Maybe this will be a breakthrough for him and the light bulb will go on as he usually hangs in the stretch. I liked Seek Again in this race and Rookie Sensation and was way off.

Always Love Your Animals,

Will