Belmont Rankings #11 to #1

Belmont Rankings #11 - #1

All pictures taken by Carly Kaiser unless indicated that I took it (Trust me, you can tell the difference). 

(11) Matterhorn– Hi, thanks for showing up. Great Disneyland ride. 30-1

(10) Matuszak – The three trainers I have the most respect for in the country are (1) Graham Motion, (2) Richard Mandella and (3) Bill Mott. I hesitate to put this horse so far down the list because of Bill Mott, but I just don’t see it with this horse. Still eligible for a N1X, he finished a distant second to Kid Cruz who got schooled in the Preakness and by others in this race. Just don’t see it. By Bernardini out of a Mr. Prospector mare, so the breeding is decent for this horse to get the distance as Bernardini won at a 10 Furlongs. 30-1

A picture I took of Bernardini straight chillin' at Darley: 

(9) General A Rod– Had him ranked higher in the other Triple Crown races because he is a hard trier and a grinder but he finished 4^th in the Preakness and I have given him enough chances.  His pedigree is not an issue to me. Roman Ruler was the sire of a Belmont winner (Ruler on Ice) and he is out of a Dynaformer mare. Has the pedigree for 12 Furlongs, but he has had his shots at California Chrome and just has failed to get there. 20-1

(8) Ride on Curlin – Gave California Chrome his best shot in the Preakness and ran well, but Chrome had his number even if they went around another time. I don’t think that the stretch out helps him even though his sire is Curlin (who barely lost to Rags to Riches in the Belmont). Usually, this race is won by a plodder, not a closer like Ride on Curlin. I also believe that the last two races have taken something out of him. Just a hunch. 12-1

(7) Wicked Strong – He is the second favorite on the morning line. His pedigree is ok for the distance as he is by Hard Spun (finished 4^th in Belmont) out of a Charismatic (finished 3^rd in Belmont) mare. Again, he is a closer and I don’t think the pace is going to help him get home. He finished behind Tonalist a few races back and I think Tonalist has only gotten better since then. Been looking good at Belmont. 6-1

(6) Commanding Curve – My longshot pick in the Derby ran a great second but now his odds will be significantly lower and the pace will not set up for him. There is really not that much speed in this race (Chrome, Tonalist and Samraat are the likely contenders on the front end but none of them are overly fast). I like this horse and wish him the best, but the odds will not allow me to bet him this time. I needed him to win the Derby for a big payday. 15-1

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(5) Commissioner – I think that pedigree matters more in the Belmont than any other race. This horse has the best distance pedigree of any other horse in the field. A.P. Indy (Belmont winner) out of a Touch Gold (Belmont winner) mare. Commissioner beat Top Billing earlier this year. However, since then he has been well beaten by General A Rod, Tonalist and Ride on Curlin. I think this horse is a potential Travers winner and a stallion prospect down the road, but I am not sure this race at this time is the right situation for him to win. However, I will include him in a Pick 4 because he is improving and his odds will be great. He would be a Breeders’ Cup Classic future bet for me. 20-1

Please note that 6 horses in the Belmont have A.P. Indy as part of their sire line: California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit); Matterhorn (Tapit); Commanding Curve (Master Command); Matzusak (Bernardini); Commissioner (A.P. Indy); Tonalist (Tapit).

A.P. Indy -> Pulpit -> Tapit

A.P. Indy -> Pulpit -> Lucky Pulpit

A.P. Indy -> Master Command

A.P. Indy -> Bernardini

A.P. Indy is one of my all time favorites. Here is a picture of him I took back in 2010 at Lane's End Farm: 

(4) California Chrome – I can hear the chorus of boos all over the Northwest. “The streets will be filled with the blood of the Brewer non-believer!” Well, as a racing fan I hope that he wins. As an investor, what is the point?Plus, I think that there are a lot of things that are conspiring against him winning this race at 2/5. First, his pedigree does not scream out 12 Furlongs. Second, he will have a huge target on his back and will be given no breathers for 12 Furlongs. Third, Big Brown and Smarty Jones both failed against much weaker fields. Fourth, he has had a long campaign that may catch up with him in the final 2 Furlongs. Fifth, he has a larger field than Secretariat, Slew and Affirmed had to deal with. I was more convinced Smarty Jones and Big Brown were going to win the Triple Crown than I am with California Chrome. Spectacular Bid is twice the horse California Chrome was and he could not complete the Triple Crown. Odds are too low. 3/5

DIATRIBE ALERT: I hear lots of people saying that "We need a Triple Crown winner to save the sport." I disagree. This is a business and the industry needs to stand alone and not be dependent on Triple Crown winners or Casinos at racetracks in order to survive (Look at what is happening in Ontario and Pennsylvania). This industry needs to stare its problems straight in the face and deal with them TOGETHER: (1) Taking care of the horse; (2) Reviewing and changing the Interstate Horse Racing Act; (3) Medication; (4) Takeout; (5) Whipping; (6) Catering to the Horseplayers and Owners first; (7) Breeding better horses; (8) Aftercare for horses; (9) Bringing back the small breeder; (10) Care for our Horsepeople and jockeys if they get injured; (11) 2-year old sales. I am not afraid to admit we have issues (just like any other industry) and work to solve the problems. A Triple Crown winner does not solve all of these problems. 

I hear a lot of people say that we just need to "stay positive." Sure, but I liken the current horse racing situation to the Titanic. There is an "iceberg right ahead." It takes a while to turn a boat like the Titanic left (and an industry like horse racing) but you need to take that action to avoid the iceberg.  Staying positive on a sinking ship does not save your life. Find a lifeboat OR you can start to steer the ship out of the way. We still have time to steer the ship away from the iceberg. We can slowly turn the boat around and avoid sinking (and a bunch of crappy Celine Dion songs). But we have to face our problems and work together. 

What a Triple Crown winner will do for us is give a nice shot in the arm and pump people up about horse racing. We need to be in a position to capitalize on such media attention and draw people to our sport. Just like New York needs to use the casino money they are getting not just on purses but using a portion of the proceeds to market the sport and upgrade the facilities for our backstretch workers. 

(3) Tonalist – A very talented horse that has already finished ahead of Wicked Strong and Commissioner. He has speed to keep him close, which is necessary in the Belmont. By the world’s third greatest sire Tapit (behind (1) Galileo and (2) Deep Impact. War Front is 4^th) and out of a Pleasant Colony mare.  Pleasant Colony won the Derby and Preakness. Would have him ranked higher but (1) terrible post position and (2) won the Peter Pan over a sealed track instead of a normal dirt track at Belmont. 8-1

(2) Medal Count – Dynaformer out of an Unbridled’s Song mare. Dynaformer is a great sire for this distance. Medal Count was shut off several times during the Kentucky Derby both at the start of the race and in the stretch. It is my belief he would have finished in the top 3 or 4 if he had not been cut off in the stretch. Now he is rested (being off for the last 5 weeks) after having three races in less than a month. I am not excited about Albarado as the jockey, but I am excited about the horse and how he is working. 20-1

A picture I took of Unbridled's Song when I was in Kentucky: 

A picture showing how my wife, dog, cat and Unbridled's Song feel about me: 

(1) Samraat – Nobody is talking about this grinder who loves New York and has the perfect type of style to win this race. By Noble Causeway and out of an Indian Charlie mare, I am a little concerned about the pedigree, but I have to say the way he runs leads me to believe that he can grind out 24.3 quarters without fading. Taking a stand with some long shots in this Belmont. Ortiz is one of the leading rider at Belmont right now and knows this track better than Espinoza. Love the two 8 Furlong workouts in preparation for this race. 20-1

Best of luck to Chrome going for history. Taken by me back in 2010. 

Always Love Your Animals,

Will