Before we begin let's look at how many entries our local stallions have in this weekend's races:
Harbor the Gold - 11 starters
Cahill Road - 8 starters
Raise the Bluff - 4 starters
Trickey Trevor - 4 starters
Nationhood - 4 starters
Race 1 Saturday:
(1) Zoomzoomania - Second off the bench so has a right to improve. Best race of his career was in the slop so look at the track condition before you invest. I expect massive improvement from this horse as he showed he was capable of getting close to better horses last year.
(2) St. Nicholas Becky - The likely favorite. She ran well at this condition last time after dropping from Maiden Special Weight races. Should show some decent speed.
(3) *Grindster - You will get decent odds on him for a 6 horse field. I like the fact that he paired up his best Beyer number from last year, 45, with a 46 in his first race this year. This is usually a sign that a horse is about to improve a significant amount. Given almost a month off, he avoids the bounce.
Race 2 Saturday:
Three of the horses in this field are eligible for N2L, but that would require they would have to face older horses, so instead they are taking their chance against other 3-year-olds who have already beat winners. I will focus on the multiple winners.
(1) Tribal Mystic - Horse has won three times versus tougher competition and is coming off a win. Should be a strong favorite. Has the ability to win going to front or stalking. Good post position to see what the others on the inside will do. Sit and pounce.
(2) Colton's First - Been racing against much better. Crushed N2L at Turf Paradise last time before running against much stronger at Santa Anita. Metz is solid bringing horses from the south.
(3) Wedgey Time - The half a furlong cut back will help his chances. But he has been beaten by Tribal Mystic already and I can't see him turning the tables.
Race 3 Saturday:
Full disclosure, I am a partial owner of #3 Perhaps a Pie so I will exclude analysis on her.
(1) Andiamo Deb - A few things that favor this horse over the others in a very competitive field. First, the dam Chedoodle has produced the likes of Mike's Man Gold and No Flies on Doodle. Second, her works are better than most. 59.8 Breezing and the 46.8 Handily from the Gate. I will take K-Swag's horse on top.
(2) Seeking the Light - Blaine Wright is very good with first-time starters. This horse has had a trio of good works. Paid 29K for the horse. I expect this horse will get better with distance but may have the capability of winning now.
(3) Luck Out - Best bred horse in the field. By Lookin At Lucky out of a Quiet American mare. According to DRF Lookin At Lucky has won 4 of 7 with first-time starters. Barn knows how to get the most out of their two-year olds.
*Dance with Effie. Last weekend Fine Red Wine won a 25K maiden race for this barn. Fine Red Wine and Dance With Effie appear to have worked out together three times with Dance with Effie winning the May 16th work. I was fooled last weekend and, well you know…..
Race 4 Saturday:
Important to look at the conditions of this race. "For Fillies Three Years Old Which Have Never Won A Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming, or Starter OR Which Have Never Won Two Races OR Claiming Price $25,000."3 of the 5 horses have not beat winners yet, where Find Your Spot and Lexie Arleen fit these conditions perfectly. These are well-placed horses.
(1) Find Your Spot - Three-time winner but still fits the conditions. Her wins were a Maiden Race, a Starter Allowance race, and a Claiming Race (Optional Claiming 80k at Santa Anita). This is a good filly who was a good purchase at the WTBOA Sale for $10,000. Good work on May 22. Has the pace help she needs.
(2) Lexie Arleen - Another horse with three wins but fits the conditions. Won a Maiden Race, a Starter Allowance race and most recently a Claiming Race. Distance is not an issue for this horse.
(3) Timeless Pleasure - Nice win last time. The cut back means she will likely be closing, but the race sets up for that. Two Curlins in this race. This sire is beginning to show some muscle with Stopshoppingdebbie and Palace Malice, but he was bred to some pretty good mares early on so this should be expected.
Race 5 Saturday:
(1) Rezar - Been facing better in an open $5,000 company. Now drops in class after running sub-1:10 6 Furlong races. Only one win in the last 12 starts is a concern but should not be ignored.
(2) Da Ruler - Ran the race of his life last time after getting stuck in the starting gate (he was declared a non-starter), he comes from 14 lengths back to get up for second. This is a horse who excels when on the lead. I expect he will break much better and be in closer position.
(3) Honour Family - Dronen has been having a good meet and this horse has shown capability of putting up numbers which are competitive with the likes of these horses.
Race 6 Saturday:
(1) Mo's Flashy Date - The choice in this race based on his recent form. Been running 6 Furlongs in under 1:10, which is good enough to beat most of these.
(2) *Buddy Dave - Been running against much tougher and with a little speed in this race he should be able to close from the back. Hopefully, the rail will open up at some point because he has lost plenty of ground going wide lately.
(3) Snooper Dauper - Didn't run a step last time against stronger competition but now comes back against weaker and this horse has shown decent form. One of many I could have picked for 3rd.
Race 7 Saturday:
(1) Cantcatchme - Good record for this Harbor the Gold gelding. Just got beat by Kenai King in his last race and that horse will likely show up in the next 3-year-old stakes race. Losses to Kenai and My Chief are not bad losses to have.
(2) Stikine Slough - Another Harbor the Gold with some speed. Coming out of a the Auburn Handicap where he set a slow pace but still couldn't hold on. Now the blinkers are on so I wonder if we will see even more speed.
(3) Orito - Orito could sit off a fast pace and pounce here. Ran against and beat older horses in his last race so that win is better than it looks. I expect good things from this horse in the future.
Race 8 Saturday:
(1) I Keep Saying - Tough older horse who has much better numbers than others in this field. The bonus with I Keep Saying is that he has shown the ability to come off the pace which he may need to do with My Chief and Country Rules in the race.
(2) Country Rules - Won a nice Optional Claimer last time in 1:02.72. This horse has good potential to keep rolling.
(3) My Chief - Undefeated horse comes in off of two good wins. However, he is jumping up to face older horses for the first time. He is also forced to go a furlong longer. Will be interesting to see how he holds up.
Disruption is a talented horse but I am worried about the one work in the last 36 days.
Race 9 Saturday:
(1) Miner's Night - Been running faster fractions than the others in this race. Dropping down from Maiden $8,000 to State-Bred Maiden $5,000, which will help.
(2) Alaazwho - Most upside of any of these horses so a very likely winner. Richard gets back on. The question is whether the extra furlong helps or hurts?
(3) Drop Volley - Next best horse in the field, I think. Hard to figure this race out. Drop Volley has shown some potential.
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