The Ugly
(1) The Race Time – This was the slowest Derby in 50 years and it looked like it coming around the turn. California Chrome was able to scoot away from the field and the rest of the horses were simply not fast enough to catch him. Here are the fractions and final time for the race:
23.04 (2F)
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47.37 (4F)
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1:11.8 (6F)
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1:37.4 (8F)
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2:03.6
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For a comparison let’s look at the last Kentucky Derby on a fast track which was won by I’ll Have Another in 2011:
22.32 (2F)
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45.39 (4F)
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1:09.8 (6F)
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1:35.19 (8F)
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2:01.83
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Two things to note about these times: First, the final time was obviously faster in 2011 (In fact, over 10 lengths faster if you subscribe by the theory that 1/5 of a second equals one length. At this distance, 1/5 of a second is worth more than a length). Second, and more importantly, the pace of the race in 2011 was much faster throughout the first 6 Furlongs than it was this year. My thought going into this race was that the pace was going to be just as fast as 2011. That never materialized. Closers had a hard time as a result.
The track condition is not an excuse for the time. The dirt times were plenty fast earlier on the Churchill Downs card. Just a slow time for a below par group of 3 year-olds.
If you can't see the video, here is the link:
(2) Intense Holiday Pick – He finished 12th and didn’t really have very many excuses. He was wide on the first turn and put up closer to the pace then I thought he would be. He was in good position on the turn and moved into contention but faded in the stretch. A poor pick on my part.
(3) Candy Boy Wager – Someone in Las Vegas bet $1 million dollars on Candy Boy to win a few minutes before the race. This dropped his odds from 16-1 to 9-1. Ouch, that had to hurt:
The Bad
(1) Dance with Fate Trip– Squeezed a little at the start. Had to check a tad on the first turn when Wicked Strong passed him and that meant he failed to gain the position he wanted. Still closed well to finish 6th. Made a nice move around the turn. Good horse with a promising future.
(2) Candy Boy’s Trip – Got hosed on the turn having to check really hard when Wicked Strong and him got close together. The more and more I watch the replay the more I think that it was not Wicked Strong’s fault. I felt like the horse was just keeping his position. Nothing egregious.
(3) Medal Count Trip – Medal Count was in tight early, but the worst part of his trip was when Danza cut him off in the stretch. I though the Danza should have been disqualified from 3rd place, but they let things like that go in the Kentucky Derby.
(3) Medal Count Trip – Medal Count was in tight early, but the worst part of his trip was when Danza cut him off in the stretch. I though the Danza should have been disqualified from 3rd place, but they let things like that go in the Kentucky Derby.
(1) California Chrome – The best horse won the race and that is always nice to see. Most importantly, for us dreamers, it is nice to see that you can have a Kentucky Derby winner from a $2,500 stallion and a mare who was simply not a good performer at the racetrack. Look at her race record:
She won one Maiden $8,000 race at Golden Gate fields and then proceeded to finish last in her next two races in low-level claiming races. She was then retired probably because she couldn’t cut it at the racetrack. I would have never bred her…..ever. She did not have the race record or the pedigree to even take a chance on. Just my opinion. The odds of this horse winning the Kentucky Derby when the mare was bred to the stallion would have been a billion to 1. It's an amazing story.
What is nice about this story is that it gives people like me with smaller pockets a chance to dream that one day we will have that one horse that can really run. Not necessarily in the Kentucky Derby, but just a stakes race at Emerald Downs would be nice. The Seahawks motto all season was “Why not us?” Chrome’s win makes me think: Why not me?
(2) Commanding Curve Pick – He was my long shot pick in the Derby and I thought he ran well. If he won, it would have been a nice day for me. I still hit the Pick 4, which was a small consolation prize. Regardless, the best horse won.
(3) Horses – The most important thing was that all the horses and jockeys came back injury free. I can never have a bad day when that happens. A review of my Top Ten picks and where they finished:
1. Intense Holiday (14.1 to 1) – 12th
2. Dance with Fate (16 to 1) – 6th
3. California Chrome (2.5 to 1) – 1st
4. Commanding Curve (37.8 to 1) – 2nd
5. Medal Count – (22.6 to 1) – 8th
6. Candy Boy – (9.4 to 1) – 13th
7. Wicked Strong (6.5 to 1) – 4th
8. Ride on Curlin (17.3 to 1) – 7th
9. Danza – (8.7 to 1) – 3rd
10. Tapiture – (35.1 to 1) – 15th
I will give myself a C minus.
Always love your animals,
Will
9 comments:
One interesting thing about that mare's pedigree is that she has the class racemare and successful broodmare Numbered Account twice in the third generation. A daughter of top broodmare sire Buckpasser and supposed transmitter of the "big heart gene", for what it's worth. Who knows. Still, most of us would not have used Love the Chase as a racing broodmare. There are two full sisters, so I guess we'll see if it was a one-off fluke.
Florence, you might be interested in this. I agree that when you start getting deeper into the pedigree there is some suggestion of being able to have class. Still, I don't think I would have ever considered this horse as a potential broodmare and I will admit I would have been wrong
http://www.paulickreport.com/features/brisnet-com-presents-bloodlines/brisnet-com-presents-bloodlines-developing-the-derby-winners-family/
Stella!
What grade do I get for picking the winner, California Chrome, and third place finisher, Danza,? My second place pick, Wicked Strong, finished fourth.
I'm for sure giving you "props" for picking the longshot, Commanding Curve, who finished second to be right there. Brilliant!!
Stella is certainly owed.
Claudia, do you really want props for picking the three favorites in the race? If so, then props and I will give you a C+.
Interesting. I always thought that mare was so attractive, even if she did produce a stallion (Private Account) who had to wear an anti-masturbation apron. Really - I saw it with my own eyes. Didn't even know they could do that...Probably irrelevant to the Derby picture, though.
I read the last dirt race was two and a half hours before the Derby, and that the track had not been watered. So the track was really, really dry, and was tough to compare to the earlier dirt races. Perhaps it was not quite as slow as it appeared., i.e. a meaningful variant is tougher to come up with. One thing we know is that CC is a fast horse on the Beyer scale: 107 and 108 his two races before the derby.
First, the track variant for the 12th and 13th races, the ones after the derby, were the same variant as the dirt races earlier in the day. I do not doubt he can run a 107 and 108 at Santa Anita in a 9 Furlong race, but this is (1) a different track and (2) 10 furlongs. The last 2 Furlongs were slow. I think he is capable of running those figures at a shorter distance on a track like Santa Anita
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