Note: Videos embedded so if you get this by email please go directly to the website to review:
Good luck tomorrow.
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Well, the scratch of Hoppertunity pretty much changed everything for me. With Constitution, Cairo Prince and now Hoppertunity, I don’t have some of the main horses I liked 4 weeks ago. If Pablo Del Monte decides to go, lets put him at No. 16 and move everyone up a notch. Post positions now also shift which helps Intense Holiday but not Medal Count. There is also going to be a change to the morning line odds. However, the odds below reflect the original morning line.
The photos from Churchill Downs below were taken by Carly Kaiser who is from this area and is about to graduate from the University of Louisville. With her family, we used to be partners on a few horses.
That is right. My blog is blowing up so fast that I have my own track photographer!
I think you will agree she takes excellent pictures. Thanks Carly.
No. 10: Tapiture
– Post Position: 15 Odds: 15-1 (Formerly No. 11)
Tapit out of Free Spin (Olympio). This is where
things start getting tough. Anybody from #10 to #1 can get in the top four
positions. If you throw out Tapiture’s last race, you are looking at a serious
contender. He was hung out wide in the Arkansas Derby so he had an excuse for his
performance. After reviewing the race, I also saw a horse that did not seem to appreciate
the extra distance. Also, I am suspect, maybe wrongly, of the talent level of the horses that were
at Oaklawn this season. I fear this horse may have reached his peak. On Derby
Day, you’re looking for a horse that is improving at the right time. Don't want an Asmussen win either.
No. 9: Danza – Post
Position: 3 Odds: 10-1
By Street Boss
out of Champagne Royale (French Deputy). This is a hard one for
me. Part of me thinks he is a one-hit wonder who got the perfect trip in the
Arkansas Derby against a weak field. On the other hand, handicappers back at
Churchill Downs that I respect are reporting that this horse is doing really
well and came out of the Arkansas Derby none the worse for wear. Plus he is a very good-looking horse:
Street Boss appears at first to be a sprint sire. Except for Danza,
Street Boss has mainly sired sprinters lead by Grade I King’s Bishop winner
Capo Bastone. However, Street Cry, the sire of Street Boss, won the Dubai World
Cup at 10 Furlongs and sired Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Zenyatta. The dam,
Champagne Royale, was stakes-placed at 8.5 Furlongs. Tough call. I would like
to have seen another good race from him besides the Arkansas Derby. Biggest problem I see is that if he wins,
we have to deal with seeing this guy every day for the next two weeks:
No thanks. Years of being forced to watch Who’s the Boss was
enough for me (except Alyssa Milano).
No. 8: Ride on Curlin
– Post Position: 18 Odds: 15-1
By Curlin out of Magical Ride (Storm Cat). His Arkansas Derby was much better than it looks on
paper. He was bumped at the start and then was 6-wide on the final turn. He
still closed well to get second behind Danza,
who got a dream trip on the rail. The pedigree does not concern me one bit as
Curlin was two-time Horse of the Year and won several Grade 1 races at 10
Furlongs at 3 and 4. I moved him up because he will likely get a good trip with
all of the speed in front of him. Post position is a slight concern, but it is
not terrible if you’re coming from as far back as he will. The dam, Magical
Ride, was kept at sprint distances throughout her career. This is a horse to
put on the bottom of Trifectas and Superfectas.
No. 7: Wicked Strong
– Post Position: 19 Odds: 8-1
By Hard Spun out
of Moyne Abbey (Charismatic). Wicked Post Position is more like it. Being marooned
out in post 19 is not good. Really hurts his chances of winning this race. Big Brown won from post 20 (the outside
post that year), but he was clearly superior to all the other horses he raced
against that year. That is not the case with Wicked Strong. However, he may
have one of the best pedigrees in the field for this distance. His sire, Hard
Spun, finished second in the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic and was third
in the Belmont. The dam sire, Charasmatic, won the Derby and Preakness. Moyne Abbey’s sole win was at 8.5 Furlongs on
the turf at Gulfstream. Being in post 19 made me move him down a few spots.
No. 6: Candy Boy
– Post Position: 17 Odds: 20-1
By Candy Ride out
of She’s An Eleven (In Excess). After the Santa Anita
Derby, Candy Boy was on the outside looking in without enough points to get
into the Derby. However, through numerous defections, he ends up drawing in. He
has the tactical speed to gain position but also can come from far out of it
like he did in the Cash Call Futurity. Gary Stevens can place this horse
wherever he wants and the post and horses around him won't force his hand.
Been hearing from handicappers in Kentucky that he has been looking good. My
main concern is that he should have been ready to go in the Santa Anita Derby
because at that point in time he needed the points then to get in the Derby (or so it appeared).
Instead, he ran a dull third behind two horses who did not need the points to make the Derby: Hoppertunity and California Chrome. Can he make up 9 lengths on California Chrome in
4 weeks? One thing to consider is that Candy Boy was forced to press the pace
in the Santa Anita Derby, now he can sit back and close which is a much more
comfortable style for him.
Candy Ride won the Pacific Classic at a 10 Furlongs. The
dam is She’s An Eleven (named after my wife (you need to be extra nice during
Derby week so you can spend more time handicapping. It’s called Strategery)).
She’s An Eleven held her own at longer distances against
good mares in Southern California during her career. Bottom of Trifectas and
Superfectas. Candy Boy:
No. 5: Medal Count
– Post Position: 13 Odds: 20-1
Dynaformer out of
Brisquette (Unbridled’s Song). This is where everyone is going to start saying
I am stupid. But hear me out. Medal Count ran a very good second in the
Bluegrass Stakes. He was trapped outside in post 13, got a wide trip and was
able to get a good jump on what I will admit was a weak field. This is a horse that continues to improve
with each start. Most importantly, he is by Dynaformer whose offspring can get the distance
and was the sire of the wonderful Barbaro whose performance in the Derby was
“sublime.” Brisquette was graded-stakes placed on the dirt. Brisquette’s sire was Unbridled Song who I
got a chance to meet before his passing:
I am not sure who is better looking. Your call.
But this is certainly a good looking contender:
No. 4: Commanding
Curve – Post Position: 16 Odds: 50-1
Master Command
out of Mother (Lion Hearted). Now I am just talking crazy, right? Well, here is
your insane Derby long shot. Before you write me off and unsubscribe to the
blog, consider that this horse had a terrible trip in the Louisiana Derby
getting absolutely screwed at the break. Then the horse had to go wide on the
second turn and still closed well. Just watch the break he gets in this race.
He is the #7:
See what I mean? Bad break and then look at the move on the final
turn. That is the type of the move that wins a Derby. Then he splits horses in
the stretch and closes up really well. Remember, he is 50-1. I like them odds. Not
going to be a chalk eating weasel.
Master Command is by A.P. Indy, which helps add distance to
the pedigree. Master Command himself was a successful router. Mother’s two wins
were sprinting, but his final furlong in the Louisiana Derby showed he is
screaming out for more distance.
No. 3: California
Chrome – Post Position: 4 Odds: 5/2
Lucky Pulpit out
of Love the Chase (Not for Love). Shocker in Louisville! Yep, I put him at #3
instead of #1. Do I really need to go into the reasons why he can win? The only
real knock on him is that he typically wins when he is closer to the leaders
and that may burn him out. This horse has a chance for potential greatness, but don't think the race sets up for him. Plus, there have been reports about
him not looking as good at Churchill Downs as he did in California. He has
never been outside of California until now. Got to beat those favorites.
No. 2: Dance with
Fate – Post Position: 11 Odds: 20-1
Two Step Salsa
out of Flirting with Faith (Saint Ballado). Dance with Fate has been
creeping up my list for the last week and a half. He seems to be coming into
this race in top condition. He is looking fantastic and his works have been
very good. He ran a fantastic race in the Blue Grass on synthetic, but I
believe this horse can run decently on dirt even though his past performances
suggest otherwise. He finished second in a Grade 1 at Santa Anita on dirt.
Review the Bluegrass for yourself and see how well he closes. Dance with Fate
is the No. 8 horse and Medal Count is the No. 13 in this video:
Medal Count got the jump on him and he still was able to
blow by him in the stretch. The biggest concern is whether a horse sired by Two
Step Salsa can get the distance. But the dam is by Saint Ballado who sired
Grade 1 distance runners Saint Liam, Ashado and Captain Bodget.
And just look at this. This is well worth 2 minutes of your time:
No. 1: Intense
Holiday – Post Position: 15 Odds: 12-1
Harlan’s Holiday out
of Intensify (Unbridled’s Song). He is coming into this race in perfect
condition. His works have been outstanding and he has the perfect style for a
race like this. I have liked this horse since I saw him in the Remsen Stakes
back in November. His trip in the Louisiana Derby was eventful as he was
checked on the turn and hit the rail in the stretch. Go back up to Commanding Curve and watch his run in
the Louisiana Derby.
Plus, he gets one of the best riders ever in John Velazquez
and has one of the great trainers in Todd Pletcher. His workout against We Miss Artie last weekend was
something to behold as he blew by that horse. Horse is getting good at the
right time.
His sire, Harlan’s Holiday, was the Kentucky Derby favorite and won both the
Florida Derby and the Bluegrass at 9 Furlongs. His offspring can get the distance. In
addition, there is tons of black-type under the second and third dams. The
pick.
(With Danza)
These are bold predictions. Mock me Saturday afternoon at will. I stayed away from the favorites. This is what the derby
is all about. Happy Derby.
Always love your
animals,
Will
1 comment:
Nice list, Will! Danza rocks.
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